Key Highlights

● T-Mobile expects about 250,000 postpaid net account additions in the third quarter.

● Full-year postpaid net account guidance is 950,000 to 1.05 million.

● Second-quarter postpaid net account additions were 277,000, down 13% from 318,000.

● Adjusted free cash flow guidance was raised to $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion.

T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) has told investors to expect about 250,000 postpaid net account additions in the third quarter, a forecast that may shape how its 28 October results are judged. The company also reiterated a full-year range of 950,000 to 1.05 million. With roughly 500,000 added in the first half, the arithmetic leaves a smaller but still meaningful gap for the fourth quarter. T-Mobile has been an S&P 500 constituent since its 2019 addition.

Latest Company Context

In its second-quarter report on 23 July, T-Mobile posted 277,000 postpaid net account additions, down 13% from 318,000 a year earlier. Service revenue was $19.0 billion, up 9%, and postpaid service revenue rose 13% to $15.9 billion. Core adjusted EBITDA was $9.5 billion, up 12%. Adjusted free cash flow was $4.8 billion, and full-year guidance was raised to $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion from $18.1 billion to $18.7 billion. Management said postpaid phone churn was 0.85% and cautioned that rate-plan modernization may temporarily lift account churn in the third quarter. Shares fell in premarket trading after revenue came in below consensus. Cumulative shareholder returns since the third quarter of 2022 total $54.6 billion, the company says. Postpaid average revenue per account was $152.91, up 2%.

Key Business Drivers

Account growth is the swing factor. Reported figures were affected by acquired UScellular customers, who carry lower revenue per account, and by a rising share of broadband-only accounts. Management said postpaid ARPA growth excluding acquisitions was 3.7%, versus 2% reported. Simple arithmetic suggests that if first-half additions were near 500,000 and the third quarter lands near 250,000, the fourth quarter would need roughly 200,000 to 300,000 to reach the guided range; this is an illustration, not company guidance. As an S&P 500 member, T-Mobile is also widely held through index-tracking funds, which may amplify moves around results. Cash returns remain large, with a $18.2 billion authorization through 31 December 2026. Metronet-related fiber additions have partly offset the slower account trend through higher gross additions.

What Investors Should Watch

On 28 October, investors may focus on whether third-quarter account additions land near the 250,000 indication and whether churn behaves as management signalled. Guidance on core adjusted EBITDA of $37.1 billion to $37.5 billion, which was reiterated in July, may also be tested, with management expecting slower second-half growth partly because of acquisition timing. Updates on the direct-to-device discussions with Starlink, which management described in July as progressing toward a long-form agreement, could matter given recent sector volatility around satellite spectrum. Analysts held an average target of about $257 in July. Management also guided third-quarter service revenue of about $19.3 billion and core adjusted EBITDA of about $9.4 billion.

The Fourth-Quarter Math Behind T-Mobile's Account Guidance

T-Mobile enters its third-quarter report with strong revenue and cash-flow momentum but a more modest account-growth path than a year ago. Whether the fourth-quarter requirement looks achievable may be a key lens on guidance credibility.