Key Highlights

● AAPL shares rose 1.29% to $340.97 in Monday’s session, up from a prior close of $336.64, with about 25.85 million shares traded.

● JPMorgan raised its price target to $360 from $340, saying supplier reports reflect Apple’s new launch cadence and are not a weaker cycle, while Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating.

● A Friday report said Apple asked some suppliers to cut October iPhone 18 Pro component orders by at least 15%.

● Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion, and Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on October 29.

What pushed Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) onto the list of the most active US stocks on Monday, October 12, was a debate on Wall Street over how the iPhone 18 cycle is going. The shares gained 1.29% to close at $340.97, up from a prior close of $336.64, and touched an intraday high of $342.63. About 25.85 million shares changed hands. That was roughly $8.81 billion of stock, eighth among US names by dollar volume. Even so, the session was quieter than usual for Apple. Relative volume was 0.71, and turnover ran about 47% below the stock’s average daily volume of roughly 48.65 million shares.

Monday’s gain came after a soft finish to the prior week. On Friday, October 9, a report said Apple had asked some suppliers to cut October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro by at least 15% from its original requests, citing weaker-than-expected demand. The figures were not independently confirmed. Apple lost about 1% on Friday after the reports.

On Monday, two major brokers argued against the bearish reading. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analyst Samik Chatterjee raised his price target to $360 from $340 and kept an Overweight rating. He said the supplier reports reflect Apple’s new launch cadence and are “not a weaker cycle.” Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) reiterated its Buy rating and $370 price objective. The broader market also helped: early in the session the S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite were each up between roughly 0.6% and 0.8%.

What Apple Does

Apple designs and sells the iPhone, Mac, iPad and a line of wearables, home and accessory products. It also runs a large services business that includes the App Store, iCloud, advertising, payments and subscriptions. The iPhone is still the main revenue driver, bringing in $54.3 billion of the $109.4 billion Apple reported for its fiscal third quarter. Services, at $30.7 billion, is the second-largest category and carries the highest margins. There are more than 2.5 billion active Apple devices.

The company is also in a leadership transition. In April, Apple’s board named John Ternus, the senior vice president of hardware engineering, to succeed Tim Cook as chief executive effective September 1, 2026. Cook became executive chairman, a newly created role.

Latest Results and Guidance

Apple’s fiscal third quarter ended June 27, 2026, and the company called it its strongest June quarter ever. Revenue rose 16% from a year earlier to $109.4 billion, and diluted earnings per share rose 29% to $2.02. The consensus estimate was $1.89 per share. iPhone revenue grew 22% and Mac revenue grew 29%. Services rose 12%, a gain Apple said was held back by significant foreign-exchange headwinds. iPad was the only category to decline, falling about 6%.

The headline figures got some help from one-time items. Per-share earnings included $0.11 from tariff refunds. The 50.1% gross margin included roughly two percentage points from those refunds, and the chief financial officer cited about 48.1% without them.

For the September quarter, Apple guided to total revenue growth of 9% to 11% and iPhone growth in the mid-teens. It forecast a gross margin of 47% to 48%, including about one point from tariff refunds, and warned that limited availability of advanced chip nodes would significantly constrain supply of iPhone, Mac and iPad. Higher memory costs are also squeezing margins. Apple has publicly blamed AI-driven memory prices for price increases across its lineup. Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on October 29.

The iPhone 18 Debate

The disagreement over the iPhone 18 comes down to whether this cycle should be judged by units sold or by revenue. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, each $100 more than the models they replace. Apple has also split its launch schedule, with the standard iPhone 18 expected in spring 2027. That change may help explain softer demand between late August and October.

JPMorgan’s numbers show the tradeoff. Chatterjee trimmed his December-quarter estimates and now forecasts 69 million iPhone shipments, down 18% from a year earlier. He expects average selling prices to rise about 20%, offsetting most of that drop in volume. His December-quarter earnings estimate of $2.81 per share is about 4% below the $2.92 consensus.

Bank of America’s note focused on a longer-term risk. It followed SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)’s October 8 agreement to buy Grain Management’s 800 MHz low-band spectrum. The analysts estimated that if 10% of the big three US carriers’ postpaid subscribers moved to SpaceX, Apple could lose about 5 million units, or roughly $6 billion of revenue. They saw limited near-term earnings risk and said any real impact would likely come in fiscal 2028 or later. SpaceX has not announced a handset.

Valuation

Apple is not cheap. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 39.09, on trailing earnings of $8.72 per share, and its market value at about $4.98 trillion. The PEG ratio is 2.68. By comparison, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s trailing multiple is about 29 and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s is about 16. Alphabet’s figure is flattered by large unrealized investment gains. Apple, meanwhile, bought back about $62.1 billion of stock over nine months.

The stock has also run ahead of many analysts’ targets. The consensus target is $340.39, essentially Monday’s closing price, and the tally shows 26 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, 14 Holds and two Sells. Another average target is lower, at $328.09. The shares were about 1% below their 52-week high of $345.34. They were up about 25% year to date as of Monday morning.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case

Bulls point to the strong June quarter, a guide for continued double-digit growth, pricing power on premium iPhones, and steady expansion in Services. They also cite AI features unveiled at WWDC26, including a revamped Siri, which have been linked to paid iCloud upgrades. There are also reports of strong orders for a foldable iPhone and a 22% iPhone market share in the third quarter.

Bears focus on margins and demand. Gross margin guidance is below the June quarter’s level, and memory costs remain a headwind. Cook has called memory costs a “100-year flood.” Supply constraints persist, and Greater China revenue fell from the prior quarter. Insiders including Cook and Ternus sold shares on October 2, though insider sales were mostly to cover taxes on equity awards. A premium multiple leaves little room for disappointment.

Apple’s October 29 Report and the iPhone 18 Verdict

The next big test is the October 29 fiscal fourth-quarter report. Investors will want December-quarter guidance on iPhone volumes versus pricing, the gross margin path as memory costs rise and tariff-refund benefits fade, and whether supply constraints are easing. Further supply-chain reports and SpaceX’s handset plans also bear watching.