Key Highlights

● Shopify shares fell 4.84% to close at $169.52 on October 16.

● The consensus 12-month price target is $175.71, implying about 3.65% upside.

● Analysts are split 42 Buy, 11 Hold, and 1 Sell on the stock.

● Targets range from $120 to $220 across 54 analysts.

Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) closed at $169.52 on October 16, 2026 on the Nasdaq. The average analyst price target is $175.71, which implies 3.65% upside from the latest close if the consensus proves accurate. The shares fell 4.84% on the day, leaving them only a few % below the average analyst target.

What Is the Latest Analyst Price Target?

According to market data, the average price target for SHOP is $175.71, with a median of $179.50. The highest target is $220 and the lowest is $120, drawn from 54 analysts. The consensus rating is Buy. Price targets are forecasts, not guarantees, and the consensus target suggests where analysts think the shares could trade over roughly the next twelve months rather than where they will go. The consensus data is dated October 16, 2026.

What Are Analysts Saying?

The rating split is 42 Buy (31 Strong Buy, 11 Buy), 11 Hold, 1 Sell (Strong Sell). Most analysts are positive, but 11 of 54 rate the stock Hold and the target range of $120 to $220 is wide. Several recent revisions have been upward, though the average target remains close to the share price.

Baird maintained Buy and raised its target from $160 to $190 on October 14, 2026, and Jefferies maintained Buy at $175 the same day. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Hold and lifted its target from $145 to $158 on 12 October, Seaport Global raised from $175 to $180 on 8 October, and J.P. Morgan maintained Buy on 16 October.

What Could Help the Stock Reach the Price Target?

Shopify reported full-year 2025 revenue of $11.56 billion, up 30.14%, while earnings fell 39.03% to $1.23 billion. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is $13.27 billion, up 32.5%, with EPS of $1.48. The shares trade on Nasdaq and the TSX.

Sustained revenue growth above 30% and further upward target revisions could narrow the gap to the higher analyst targets, such as Baird's $190.

What Could Prevent the Stock Reaching the Target?

Earnings have not kept pace with revenue, and the latest fall of nearly 5% shows how volatile the shares can be. With the price close to the consensus, limited upside is implied if growth moderates. Consensus targets can also be revised downwards quickly, and broader market conditions, interest rates and sector sentiment may affect the shares regardless of company performance.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

Shopify plans to report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on November 3, 2026. Investors may also watch for further target revisions, changes in rating and any updates to company guidance, since these tend to move the consensus figures.

Little Room Left to Close

With SHOP at $169.52 and an average target of $175.71, the consensus target suggests 3.65% upside, within a range of $120 to $220.