Key Highlights

  • Riskified shares are trading down 6.94% at $9.65 versus a prior close of $10.37.
  • The stock surged 22.29% on Wednesday after third quarter results.
  • Revenue rose 41% to a record $115.2 million.
  • 2026 Revenue guidance was raised to $427 million to $433 million.
  • Gross Margin fell to 43% from 51%.

Riskified (NYSE:RSKD) is trading down 6.94% at $9.65, giving back part of Wednesday's 22.29% surge to $10.37. Third quarter results were strong, but a drop in gross margin and no 2027 guidance have tempered enthusiasm.

Record Quarter

Revenue grew 41% to a record $115.2 million, well above the roughly 27% growth guided and the first quarter above $100 million, against about $103 million expected. Gross merchandise Volume was $44.6 billion, up 80%. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million, a 7% margin, and free Cash Flow was a record $15.2 million.

Digital finance grew more than 300% on new merchant wins. Electronics, general and home grew 12%, tickets and travel 5% and fashion and luxury 4%. The United States grew about 69%, Asia Pacific 14% and other Americas 17%, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa declined 3%.

Guidance Raised a Third Time

Full-year revenue guidance rose to $427 million to $433 million from $400 million to $410 million, implying fourth quarter growth of about 29% at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $39 million to $43 million, up from $33 million to $39 million, and Gross Profit growth is now 14% to 16%, up from 11% to 14%.

Margin Pressure

Gross margin fell to 43% from 51% as newly onboarded merchants carried higher chargeback ratios. Management withheld 2027 guidance.

Agentic Commerce

Management sees rising Fraud complexity and agentic commerce as an opportunity. It launched Agent Identity Risk Intelligence and a Zendesk integration. Agent activity so far is most prevalent in returns, refunds and discounts rather than checkout, and fraud attempts in the channel are rising. Multi-product merchants grew about 55%.

Analyst View

Truist lifted its target to $14 and UBS to $10.50 with a Neutral rating. Of five analysts, two are bullish, two neutral and one bearish, with an average target of $9.05, close to the current price.

Margin Recovery Decides the Next Move

The question is whether gross margin recovers as new merchants mature and chargeback ratios normalize. Investors will watch fourth quarter margin against the 43% level, whether revenue reaches the roughly 29% growth implied for the quarter and when management gives 2027 guidance.

The shares climbed sharply on Wednesday, so the pace of margin repair and cash flow carries more weight than revenue.