Key Highlights

  • Rigetti shares are trading down 5.16% at $10.54 versus a prior close of $11.11.
  • Third quarter Revenue was about $1.4 million, down from $1.9 million a year earlier.
  • 2026 revenue guidance of about $20 million sits below the $22.8 million consensus.
  • Cash and investments were $497.1 million with no debt.
  • Median two-qubit fidelity reached 99.5% on a 108-qubit system.

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is trading down 5.16% at $10.54, following an 8.56% drop on Wednesday to $11.11. Third quarter revenue missed estimates and full-year guidance fell below consensus. Peer D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) is trading down 5.42%, and Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:QUBT) is down 5.75%.

Revenue Misses

Third quarter revenue was about $1.4 million versus $1.9 million a year earlier and roughly $3.5 million expected. Nine-month revenue was $10.9 million versus $5.2 million, up about 110%. Gross Margin was about 61% versus 21%.

Third quarter operating expenses were $34 million, with Research and Development at $25.5 million and selling and administrative costs at $8.5 million. The operating loss was $33.2 million.

Guidance Below Consensus

Full-year 2026 revenue is guided to about $20 million, below the roughly $22.8 million consensus, and depends on India's C-DAC accepting a 108-qubit system in the fourth quarter. The chief financial officer said Capital spending will stay elevated and be relatively consistent in 2027, while the chief executive said quantum computing remains in the research and development phase.

Technical Progress

Rigetti reached 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system, with 99.6% on an 80-qubit sublattice and 99.7% on a 50-qubit sublattice.

The roadmap targets a 300-plus qubit system with about 99.7% fidelity and gate speeds below 60 nanoseconds by mid-2028, and a roughly 1,000-qubit system with 99.9% fidelity about three years out.

Balance Sheet

Cash and investments were $497.1 million with no debt, and nine-month capital spending was $42.6 million. None of the $100 million of Commerce funding had been drawn as of September.

Analysts Cut Targets

Needham cut its target to $15, Mizuho to $17, Jefferies to $12, StoneX to $20, Alliance Global to $22 and Craig-Hallum to $16, mostly keeping Buy ratings. Of eight analysts, seven are bullish and one neutral, with an average target of $25.25 and a range of $12 to $40.

System Acceptance Decides the Next Move

The $20 million guide hinges on one delivery. Investors will watch whether C-DAC accepts the 108-qubit system in the fourth quarter, how fast the roadmap slips toward mid-2028 and how quickly cash is used from $497.1 million.

Revenue timing is the near-term marker, and fidelity gains are the technical one.