Highlights 

  • Omdia reports a 1% YoY drop in US PC shipments for Q3 2025. 
  • Consumer PC shipments increased by 8%, offsetting broader market pressures. 
  • Education and government segments fell sharply with a 23% decline. 
  • Commercial demand remained stable, helped by the transition to Windows 11. 
  • Full-year US PC shipments are still forecast to grow 4% in 2025. 

Omdia, part of Informa TechTarget Inc. (NASDAQ:TTGT), has released its latest data showing that US PC shipments fell 1%year-on-yearin Q3 2025 to 17.7 million units. This marks the second consecutive quarter of decline for the overall market. 

Despite persistent macroeconomic challenges, the consumer segment defied the broader trend with shipments rising 8% year-on-year to 7.6 million units. The commercial segment saw only a slight dip of under 1%, showcasing relative stability. However, the education and government categories experienced a steep 23% contraction, weighing heavily on total shipment numbers. 

Even with back-to-back quarterly drops, Omdia maintains an optimistic view for the holiday season and expects the US PC market to grow 4% for the full year 2025. 

Drivers Behind Segment-Level Divergence 

According to Omdia Analyst Greg Davis, the sharp downturn in the education and government sectors stems from several converging factors. Reduced funding for schools and public agencies, combined with record layoffs in these segments, has constrained technology spending. 

Additionally, inventory corrections have played a key role. Excess stock accumulated earlier in the year—partly as a buffer against tariff effects—is now being unwound. A recent Omdia poll suggests commercial channel partners globally expect inventory levels to fall in Q4 2025, creating space for future shipments. 

Davis notes that as inventories normalize, the rate of decline in the commercial segment should begin to moderate. The ongoing migration from Windows 10 to Windows 11 is also expected to support replacement demand heading into Q4. 

Consumer Momentum Meets Macroeconomic Challenges 

The consumer segment has delivered consistent growth throughout the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 marking its best performance so far. Shipments increased 8% year-on-year, supported by ongoing product refresh cycles and heightened demand for personal devices. 

However, Omdia warns that the momentum may not last into Q4. Consumer sentiment in the US has weakened amid inflation pressures, elevated interest rates, rising unemployment, climbing credit card debt, and increasing loan delinquencies. These factors are likely to curb discretionary spending, prompting Omdia to forecast a year-on-year decline for the consumer PC segment in the upcoming quarter. 

Still, Omdia expects the US PC market to finish 2025 in a better position than earlier in the year, supported by stabilizing commercial demand and inventory normalization. 

Conclusion 

Omdia’s latest findings underscore a US PC market navigating mixed dynamics—consumer strength, commercial steadiness and pronounced weakness in education and government spending. While macroeconomic challenges remain, the outlook for 2025 stays constructive, with full-year growth still expected. As inventories level out and operating conditions adjust, the PC industry heads into the final quarter with cautious optimism.