Key Highlights

  • New form factor: Apple's first foldable iPhone marks its most significant hardware departure in years, aimed at reigniting upgrade demand.
  • Scale: Apple remains among the largest constituents in the Nasdaq 100, giving any shift in its growth trajectory outsized influence on the index.
  • Track record: Apple has a long history of entering established categories later than rivals and still capturing outsized profit share.
  • Execution risk: Success depends on pricing, supply, and durability meeting expectations at a premium price point in a still-nascent foldable category.

Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) decision to launch its first foldable iPhone reopens a question that has hung over the company for years: where its next wave of growth will come from. For investors in the Nasdaq 100, where Apple is among the very largest constituents, that question matters because the firm is big enough to move the entire index on its own.

What Apple Does, and Why Hardware Still Rules

Apple designs consumer electronics and the software and services that run on them. It sits in the technology hardware sector, but its story is increasingly about the ecosystem: iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and a services arm spanning the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and advertising. The iPhone remains the centre of gravity, driving the majority of Revenue and pulling customers into the higher-margin services that follow.

A New Form Factor Enters the Range

At its 2026 launch event Apple unveiled a foldable iPhone alongside a refreshed premium lineup, its most significant change to the phone's shape in years. A folding device gives Apple a genuinely new premium tier to sell, and a reason for long-standing customers to upgrade after several iterations that offered only incremental change. The commercial logic is straightforward: a higher-priced flagship can lift average selling prices and, in turn, revenue, even if unit volumes grow slowly.

The Financial Backdrop

The launch arrives with Apple in solid shape. For its third fiscal quarter of 2026, ended in late June, Apple reported record revenue of 109.4 billion US dollars, up about 16 per cent year on year, with net profit of 29.8 billion dollars. Services set another record, although growth came in below some forecasts, a reminder that even Apple's most reliable engine is not immune to expectations running ahead of reality.

Why it Matters for the Nasdaq 100

Apple's sheer size means its fortunes are woven into the index's returns. A successful new product category would support the argument that Apple can keep growing revenue from a mature base, which in turn underpins a valuation that assumes durability rather than rapid expansion. A disappointing reception, by contrast, would sharpen concerns that the smartphone market is saturated and that services alone cannot carry the company.

The Risks to Weigh

Foldable phones are not new to the market, and rivals have spent years refining them. Apple faces real questions about durability, pricing and whether buyers see enough benefit to justify the premium. A high price could limit volumes; a modest one could dilute margins. Broader risks persist too: Apple's dependence on the iPhone, its exposure to Chinese Manufacturing and demand, regulatory pressure on the App Store, and the perception that it has been slower than peers to ship advanced artificial-intelligence features.

What to Watch Next

Readers should look for early indications of demand, including reported lead times and any commentary on average selling prices, which reveal whether the foldable is lifting the mix. Services growth remains the key measure of ecosystem health and deserves close attention. Progress on Apple's artificial-intelligence roadmap is another swing factor, since it could either reinforce or undermine the upgrade case. Finally, watch gross margins for signs that a more complex device is weighing on profitability, and watch Apple's guidance for how confident management is about the crucial holiday quarter that traditionally defines its year and shapes sentiment towards the shares.

Betting on the Next Hardware Cycle

It is worth remembering how Apple tends to enter new categories. It rarely ships the first version of a technology; instead it waits, then arrives with a more polished product and a Marketing reach few rivals can match. The foldable phone fits that pattern, and its reception will show whether that patient strategy still works against fast-moving Asian rivals. For a company of Apple's size, even a successful new line must clear a high bar to move the needle at all.