There's been a notable change in appetite for Sylvamo Corporation (NYSE:SLVM) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to US$52.64. Revenues of US$821m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.65, missing estimates by 5.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Sylvamo after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Sylvamo's three analysts is for revenues of US$3.45b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 6.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 6.0% to US$6.60 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.88 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Sylvamo

The consensus price target held steady at US$78.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sylvamo at US$93.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$70.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.8% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Sylvamo is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sylvamo. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sylvamo going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Sylvamo that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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