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If you are wondering whether Goodman Group at around A$29.31 offers fair value or is priced for perfection, you are not alone. The stock has had mixed returns, with a 15.6% gain over the last 30 days, a 2.9% return over 1 year, and a 56.9% return over 3 years, while year to date it is down 4.9%. Recent market attention has focused on Goodman Group as a major player in industrial real estate and logistics, an area closely watched whenever investor sentiment shifts around warehouse, data center, and e-commerce related assets. Broader sector headlines on real estate and infrastructure sensitivity to interest rates and capital flows also help frame how investors are thinking about risk and return for Goodman Group. Goodman Group currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6, which sets up an important question about how traditional valuation checks compare with other ways of thinking about price and value that will be discussed later in this article.

Goodman Group scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Goodman Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes projected future cash flows and discounts them back to today, aiming to estimate what those cash flows are worth in present terms.

For Goodman Group, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow stands at A$1.21b. Analysts supply cash flow estimates for several years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates these further out, with projections reaching A$3.86b in 2035. Each of these future A$ cash flows is discounted to reflect the time value of money and risk.

Putting all of this together, the DCF output suggests an estimated intrinsic value of A$25.52 per share. Against a current share price of about A$29.31, the model implies the stock is around 14.8% overvalued based on these cash flow assumptions and discounting choices.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Goodman Group may be overvalued by 14.8%. Discover 12 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.GMG Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Goodman Group.

Approach 2: Goodman Group Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a familiar way to think about value because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that support it. A higher or lower P/E often reflects what the market is baking in around growth potential and risk, so there is no single “right” number. Faster expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while more uncertainty or slower growth usually points to a lower “normal” range.

Story Continues

Goodman Group currently trades on a P/E of 35.4x. That sits above the Industrial REITs industry average of 17.5x and above a peer group average of 15.4x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 15.0x for Goodman Group. This Fair Ratio aims to capture what a more tailored P/E might look like after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap, and key risks.

Because the Fair Ratio is designed around Goodman Group’s own characteristics rather than just broad sector or peer comparisons, it can be a more focused reference point. With the current P/E of 35.4x sitting well above the Fair Ratio of 15.0x, the shares screen as expensive on this earnings based yardstick.

Result: OVERVALUEDASX:GMG P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 4 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Goodman Group Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as a simple tool that lets you attach a clear story about Goodman Group, including your view on data center expansion, capital-light partnerships, risks, and long project cycles, to a set of numbers such as expected revenue, earnings, margins, and a fair value that can be compared directly to the current price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives help you link that story to a live financial forecast. When new information like the updated A$34.79 consensus fair value or news about the Vernon data center joint venture and potential Moorabbin Airport sale appears, your view and fair value update automatically, making it easier to see whether the current share price looks high or low relative to your own assumptions.

For example, one Goodman Group Narrative might lean closer to the higher A$40.00 analyst target, reflecting strong conviction in data center driven earnings and margins. Another might sit nearer the A$29.00 target, putting more weight on execution, funding, and cost risks. Each of these stories leads to a different fair value signal that can inform your decisions without relying only on a single DCF or P/E ratio.

Do you think there's more to the story for Goodman Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!ASX:GMG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include GMG.AX.

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