It's been a good week for HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.9% to US$32.01. Revenues of US$6.4b came in a modest 6.2% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.02 coming in a substantial 96% smaller than what the analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, HF Sinclair's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$28.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with HF Sinclair forecast to report a statutory profit of US$1.68 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.35 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

See our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$41.82, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HF Sinclair at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HF Sinclair's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that HF Sinclair's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that HF Sinclair is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HF Sinclair's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HF Sinclair. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HF Sinclair going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for HF Sinclair that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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