Key Highlights

● Iron ore edged up 0.02% to $90.74 per tonne on 14 October.

● Prices are down 6.98% over a month and 13.79% over a year.

● Market forecasts point to $89.87 for the fourth quarter.

● Chinese steel demand and seaborne supply remain the main price drivers.

Iron ore rose to $90.74 (USD) per tonne on 14 October 2026, up $0.02, or 0.02%, from a previous level near $90.72, according to market data tracking the benchmark market for this commodity. The small daily gain follows a weaker stretch, with prices down 6.98% over the past month and 13.79% compared with the same time last year.

A Softer Month and Year

The monthly and yearly declines imply prices of roughly $97.55 a month ago and $105.26 twelve months earlier. At $90.74, iron ore sits about $6.81 per tonne below last month's level and $14.52 below its level a year ago, a drop that reduces margins for higher-cost producers.

How the Benchmark Works

The most widely used price reference is the Singapore Exchange TSI index for iron ore with 62% Fe content, delivered CFR China. Futures trade in lots of 100 dry metric tonnes, a nominal value of about $9,074 per lot at the latest price. Because the index is priced for delivery to China, it reflects steelmaker demand in Asia more than conditions in the United States.

Demand and Supply Drivers

Demand is driven by Chinese blast furnace restocking cycles, Asian coastal steel production and green direct reduced iron feedstocks. Supply is anchored by seaborne shipments from Western Australia and Brazil, balanced by seasonal port inventory restocking. Changes in either side can move prices quickly because the seaborne market is concentrated among a few large exporters.

US Steel Supply Chain

Domestic pellet producers on the Mesabi Range in Minnesota, including Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), do not price their output directly off the Asian index. Even so, the benchmark influences import alternatives and the cost outlook for US steel mills. A lower global price tends to reduce the cost of imported feedstock and sharpen competition for domestic pellets.

Forecast and Outlook

Market forecasts point to about $89.87 (USD) per tonne for the fourth quarter, which is $0.87, or roughly 0.96%, below the latest quote. That suggests analysts expect prices to stay close to current levels rather than recover the month's lost ground.

Iron Ore's Flat Signal

Iron ore is stabilizing after a hard month, and forecasts point to little change into year-end. The next move will depend on Chinese steel output, port restocking and the pace of Australian and Brazilian shipments.