Key Highlights

• Steepest Losses Since December 2025: Silver is trading near its weakest level since December 2025, with losses exceeding 20% for both the month and the quarter.

• Fed Policy Outlook Weighs on Silver: A near 65% probability of a September Fed rate hike has eliminated 2026 rate-cut expectations, pressuring the non-yielding metal.

• Iran Talks Uncertainty Persists: Iran has denied reports of renewed Doha diplomatic talks, leaving geopolitical risk factors unresolved for precious metals markets.

Silver prices hovered around $58 an ounce on Tuesday, near their weakest level since December 2025, with losses exceeding 20% for both the month and the quarter, as a firm US dollar and expectations of US interest rate hikes continued to weigh on the metal.

Rising energy prices, fueled by the Middle East conflict, have eliminated expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with traders now pricing in a near 65% chance of a September hike. This represents a dramatic shift in monetary policy expectations compared to earlier in the year.

Although precious metals are traditionally seen as inflation hedges, higher interest rates tend to pressure non-yielding assets like silver, as the opportunity cost of holding the metal rises relative to interest-bearing alternatives such as Treasury bonds.

Focus now turns to upcoming US employment data, including nonfarm payrolls, and remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh due Wednesday for signals on monetary policy. Any surprise in either data point could trigger significant volatility across the precious metals complex.

Meanwhile, investors are monitoring prospects for renewed US-Iran diplomacy, though Iran has dismissed reports of talks in Doha this week as unfounded, adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that continues to influence broader market sentiment toward safe-haven assets.

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