Silver prices fell toward $64.50 per ounce on June 10, the lowest since December 2025, as May CPI confirmed a 4.2% headline print, fresh US-Iran strikes escalated Middle East tensions, and a December Federal Reserve rate hike remained fully priced in despite a softer monthly core reading.

Key Highlights

  • Silver fell toward $64.50 per ounce on June 10, retreating to its lowest level since December 2025.
  • US headline CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, the highest since April 2023, driven primarily by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict.
  • A Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026 remains fully priced in despite the softer core reading, supported by strong May payrolls data.
  • Fresh US-Iran military exchanges and President Trump's warning that Iran would pay the price for stalling negotiations deepened geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver fell further on Wednesday, sliding toward $64.50 per ounce and reaching levels not seen since December 2025. The move reflected the same convergence of forces weighing on the broader precious metals complex: an inflation print that confirmed the case for Federal Reserve tightening, and a Middle East conflict that shows no sign of resolution.

May CPI rose 4.2% on an annual basis, matching forecasts and marking the highest headline reading since April 2023. Energy costs, elevated by the sustained disruption to oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, were the dominant contributor. The print removed any residual expectation that the Federal Reserve might hold off on further tightening, keeping the December rate hike firmly on the table.

Silver, like gold, generates no income, and its opportunity cost rises as real yields and rate expectations move higher. The confirmed inflation print reinforced that dynamic, sending the metal lower alongside broader precious metals.

Monthly Core CPI Offers a Partial Cushion

The May CPI report contained one element that partially arrested the decline. Monthly core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, coming in below analyst expectations and decelerating from the 0.4% gain recorded in April. The softer monthly reading indicated that underlying price pressures, while still present, may be losing some momentum at the margin.

The development provided a modest floor for silver. A below-consensus core print is broadly negative for the US dollar, as it reduces the urgency of aggressive monetary tightening, and a softer dollar environment tends to be supportive for dollar-denominated commodities including precious metals. Silver pared some of its steeper intraday losses following the release, though the recovery was limited given the weight of the headline inflation figure and the geopolitical backdrop.

The annual core rate nonetheless climbed to a seven-month high of 2.9%, confirming that the broader inflation trend remains elevated even if the monthly momentum is easing. Thursday's Producer Price Index will offer additional context on whether producer-level inflation is reinforcing or moderating the consumer price trajectory.

Iran Escalation and the Rate Hike Anchor

The geopolitical situation deteriorated further as the session progressed. US and Iranian forces exchanged fresh strikes, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks on American bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain following US operations near the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump warned publicly that Iran would pay the price for delayed negotiations and stated that further strikes were possible if no peace deal was reached.

The escalation reduced the probability of a near-term diplomatic resolution and reinforced the energy price floor that has been sustaining headline inflation throughout the conflict. For silver, the Iran situation compounds the rate hike pressure rather than offsetting it. The geopolitical risk that might ordinarily drive safe-haven buying is the same force amplifying the inflationary environment that keeps monetary tightening expectations elevated.

Despite a slight pullback in December rate hike odds to approximately 66%, the hike itself remains fully priced in. The strong May payrolls print of 172,000 jobs, reported last week, has set a high bar for any data point that could meaningfully shift the Federal Reserve's trajectory before the year-end meeting.

Conclusion

Silver's decline on June 10 reflects the metal's vulnerability at the intersection of confirmed inflation and an unresolved military conflict. The 4.2% headline CPI print kept rate hike expectations anchored, while the softer monthly core reading provided only a partial offset. Fresh US-Iran strikes deepened the geopolitical overhang without generating the safe-haven demand that would ordinarily benefit precious metals. The near-term outlook for silver hinges on whether Thursday's PPI data and further diplomatic developments shift the balance between the inflation-driven rate hike narrative and the conflict-driven uncertainty premium.