Key Highlights

● Gold fell 3.30% to $3,888.76 an ounce in Friday's session.

● Gold dropped below $3,900, its lowest level since October 2025.

● September Inflation accelerated, strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

● Newmont's realised gold price of $4,317 compares with all-in sustaining costs of $1,454.

Gold fell 3.30% to US$3,888.76 per troy ounce in Friday's session on 30 October, dropping below US$3,900 for the first time since October 2025. The slide matters to producers such as Newmont (NYSE:NEM) and Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM), which sell at the Market Price but pay costs that rise with fuel and inflation.

The fall of US$132.55 leaves gold down 2.63% on the week and 6.92% on the month, with a loss of 9.98% since the start of the year. Other precious metals fell further: silver dropped 5.70% and platinum 3.89%, so gold was not the weakest link in a sell-off that hit the whole group.

Energy Prices Collide With the Rate Outlook

Gold is usually the metal investors turn to when the world looks dangerous, and this week offered plenty of danger. Oil climbed on fears of an escalation in the Middle East. Yet gold fell, because the same energy shock is feeding inflation, and inflation is pushing Interest Rate expectations higher. For an asset that pays nothing, higher rates for longer is the most damaging outcome.

Inflation Data Reinforce the Rate Story

US data released on Thursday showed inflation accelerating in September, with core price growth also picking up. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5%, the largest monthly gain since March, taking annual inflation to 3.6% and the core measure to 3.1%. Third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, above the 3.2% expected.

Central banks have not offered comfort. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both held rates steady this week but signalled that the fight against inflation is not over. The Fed's decision came with two officials voting for a quarter-point increase, and markets now price roughly an 80% chance of a December hike.

Tech Sell-Off and Quiet Asian Buyers

Rates are not the only pressure. Gold also came under pressure from a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, driven by concerns over rising AI-related spending. When Equity markets fall quickly, investors can be forced to sell other Assets to meet margin calls, and gold can be among the assets sold.

Physical Demand offers little cushion, with buying across key Asian markets remaining subdued.

How Gold Miners Are Placed

Lower prices have not yet reached reported earnings, because third-quarter results reflect prices from earlier in the year. Newmont reported an average realised gold price of US$4,317 per ounce, record quarterly free Cash Flow of US$1.9 billion and all-in sustaining costs of US$1,454 per ounce on a by-product basis. That is a margin of roughly US$2,863 per ounce. Its 2026 guidance assumed gold at US$4,500 an ounce, above where futures now trade, and the company also produces copper and silver, which diversifies its exposure.

Agnico Eagle reported on 28 October a realised gold price of US$4,264 per ounce, production of 814,012 ounces, all-in sustaining costs of US$1,648 per ounce and free cash flow of US$852 million. It guided to production near the lower end of its 3.3 to 3.5 million ounce range and costs near the upper end, citing higher input costs, mainly diesel.

That is the pressure point for the whole sector. A lower gold price squeezes margins from one side, and rising energy prices squeeze them from the other.

Gold Watch: The December Fed Meeting and Producer Results

The Federal Reserve's December meeting is the central event, along with the next US inflation and employment data. Results from other producers are still to come through the reporting season and will show how much fuel and labour costs are biting.

Gold could find support if inflation readings soften, if the Fed signals no further tightening or if bond yields ease. Progress towards a US-Iran settlement could lower oil and inflation expectations. Pressure would continue if a December hike is confirmed, if the dollar strengthens or if oil keeps rising and inflation stays high. Geopolitics cuts both ways: an escalation can add safe-haven demand, but it has recently added to inflation fears as well.