Key Highlights

● WM traded at $237.30 pre-market, up 2.77%, rebounding from a post-earnings dip.

● Third-quarter Revenue rose to $6.846 billion and the 2026 guidance was affirmed.

● Defensive Demand is strong as Nasdaq-100 futures fell more than 2% on AI spending worries.

● Republic Services' strong pricing and higher guidance offer a peer read-across.

Waste Management (NYSE:WM) is recovering ground before Friday's open. According to market data refreshed at 8:23 a.m. ET, WM was at $237.30, up 2.77%. Auto-generated market context attributes the move to a rebound after a post-earnings dip, along with price target increases from analysts. One brokerage is among the firms raising its target, citing WM's revenue outlook, according to a market headline. The new target figure could not be confirmed.

What WM reported

WM released its third-quarter results after the market closed on Tuesday, October 27. According to a summary of the company's 8-K filing, revenue rose to $6.846 billion from $6.443 billion a year earlier. Net Income was $820 million, up from $603 million, and diluted EPS was $2.05, up from $1.49.

Adjusted operating EBITDA rose 5.8% to $2.121 billion, with a Margin of 31.0%, close to the prior year's 31.1%. Cash generation was strong. Operating Cash Flow for the first nine months rose 12% to $4.867 billion, and free cash flow rose to $3.009 billion from $2.114 billion. WM returned $957 million to shareholders in the third quarter and affirmed its 2026 guidance, including projected free cash flow of about $3.85 billion. Revenue from its Healthcare Solutions unit, which handles medical waste, grew 3.7%.

The stock had fallen in the sessions after the report. The market context notes that EPS narrowly missed consensus expectations, though the consensus figure it used was not given. The filing summary did not include adjusted EPS, so the size of any miss cannot be confirmed.

Defensive demand and the S&P 500

WM is the largest US waste and recycling company and a member of the S&P 500. Its contract-based revenue makes it a classic defensive holding. That profile is in demand this morning. Nasdaq-100 futures were down more than 2% early Friday, as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s results raised fresh concerns about AI spending, and the pre-market list was full of defensive stocks, with staples, insurers and utilities among the gainers.

There is also a peer read-across. Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) reported on Thursday afternoon revenue of $4.559 billion, up 8.2%, along with core price gains of 5.3% and higher full-year guidance. Signs of strong pricing at the second-largest player in the industry generally reassure investors in WM as well.

WM is also preparing for a Leadership change. In August, the company said Jim Fish will retire and John Morris has been named its next chief executive.

Risks and what to watch

Rebounds that start pre-market do not always last into the regular session, and moves on thin Volume can reverse. Waste companies trade at premium valuations, which makes them sensitive to bond yields. The 10-year Treasury Yield was around 4.94% early Friday, and markets are pricing a high chance of a December Fed hike. Rising diesel prices are another concern: WTI crude was near $104 a barrel, according to market data, and fuel is a major cost for collection fleets, although WM, like its peers, uses surcharges to pass some of it on.

Today, watch whether WM can climb back toward its pre-earnings level and whether defensive buying continues once the cash session opens at 9:30 a.m. ET. Further out, the CEO transition and pricing trends in early 2027 will be the main stock-specific issues. Investors will also look for the full brokerage note, and any other target changes, to see how much of the revenue outlook analysts have built into their numbers.