Key Highlights

● December soybean meal settled at $357.10 per short ton Friday, down $2.70.

● Meal lost $8.50 over the week, giving back about 47% of the prior gain.

● NOPA reported September crush of 196.3 million bushels, a 13-month low.

● Soybeans fell 0.64% to 1,253.24 US cents a bushel in Monday's session.

December 2026 soybean meal futures on the Chicago Board of Trade settled at US$357.10 per short ton on Friday 16 October 2026, down US$2.70 on the day. Meal lost US$8.50 over the week, giving back about 47% of the previous week's US$18.10 gain, a pull-back that matters to crushers such as ADM (NYSE:ADM).

Meal tends to follow soybeans, and soybeans fell 0.64% to 1,253.24 US cents a bushel in Monday's session on 19 October, down 8.01 cents. Brokerage commentary pointed to support for December meal at its 50-day moving average, currently about US$348. A 6 October market report cited December meal near US$347.10 on 5 October, so the contract is still about US$10 above its early-October level.

A Slow Crush Cuts Both Ways

Soybean meal sits in an awkward spot this week. Fast harvest progress is adding bean supply, while a slow crush means less meal is being made. Fewer crushed beans trim meal supply but also point to softer processing economics, so the same data can be read as support or as weakness.

The Harvest and the Crush

The harvest is moving quickly. Market reports said the US soybean harvest was 46% complete and that soybeans and products fell on fast progress, while brokerage commentary cited a favourable harvest forecast. November soybeans closed Friday at 1,261.25 cents a bushel, down 30.75 cents on the week.

Crush is the other half. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported September crush of 196.3 million bushels, a 13-month low. Brokerage commentary put the board crush margin at US$2.63 per bushel, down 4 cents on Friday.

Exports Are Lagging the Forecast

Meal demand from abroad is steady but not strong enough to close the gap. Net weekly meal export sales were 366,300 tonnes, in line with expectations, and cumulative commitments of 5.47 million tonnes are 6% ahead of last year. That is below the 11% growth the US Department of Agriculture forecasts for the marketing year.

China Is Buying Beans, but Sales Are Not Shipments

Soybeans are caught between Chinese buying and harvest supply. The November soybean contract fell to a seven-week low this week before bouncing short of US$12.50 a bushel. Chinese state buyers booked roughly 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes of US soybeans early in the week, and the USDA confirmed 330,000 tonnes to China. A flash sale of 558,000 tonnes to China and 236,000 tonnes to unknown buyers was also recorded.

Even so, prices fell. Sales are not shipments: 5.09 million tonnes had shipped against 23.4 million tonnes of commitments, and tariffs remain an obstacle to steady Chinese commercial demand. Year-to-date US soybean export commitments are up 74% from last year, against a revised USDA forecast of growth of 12%, which one brokerage author believes leaves the USDA export forecast of 1.695 billion bushels too low.

Biofuel policy adds a further thread. September D4 renewable identification numbers were 788.1 million, up 10% from August but behind the level needed to meet Renewable Fuel Standard mandates. Soybean oil demand supports crush.

Who Earns From the Crush

Soybean meal is an agricultural product, so the exposed companies are processors and traders rather than miners. ADM and Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) crush soybeans into meal and oil, and their profits depend on the combined value of meal and oil relative to the cost of the bean, not on meal alone. Hedging can delay the effect on reported results.

Bunge raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to US$9.25 to US$9.75 per share, and ADM's third-quarter results are estimated for 3 November. Both groups also trade grain internationally, so their exposure is spread across origins and products. Livestock and poultry producers buy meal as feed, so lower prices ease one input cost for them.

Meal Watch: Export Sales, Crush Data and Support Near US$348

Weekly USDA export sales (usually Thursdays) and crop progress reports (usually Mondays) are the regular checks, with NOPA's next monthly crush report and ADM's third-quarter results estimated for 3 November. Meal could find support from Chinese purchases turning into shipments, a faster export pace, firmer biofuel demand and a hold above US$348. It could weaken if the harvest stays fast, crush data stays soft and tariffs keep Chinese commercial demand subdued.

Weather matters on both sides. Market commentary noted rain and a possible hurricane in the South, which could delay harvest, while South American planting conditions will matter later. El Niño is a possible risk to South American soybean output, and the balance between a fast harvest and sustained export demand will decide whether the recent softness deepens or fades.