Key Highlights

● Soybeans fell 0.32% to 1,220.58 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session.

● December soybean meal was last quoted at $335.70 per short ton on 28 October.

● Crush margins slipped to $2.35 a bushel, a two-month low.

● USDA holds its 2026/27 meal price estimate at $340 per short ton.

Soybeans fell 0.32% to 1,220.58 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session on 29 October, setting the tone for a meal market that has already slid below the US government's price estimate. The pairing of cheaper beans and thinner crush margins matters to processors such as ADM (NYSE:ADM), which turn soybeans into meal and oil.

December soybean meal futures (ZMZ26) were last quoted at US$335.70 per short ton on 28 October, about US$24 or 6.7% below where the contract stood on 15 October at US$359.80. That puts meal under the USDA's 2026/27 season-average price of US$340 per short ton, a figure the department left unchanged in its October report. Soybeans are down 2.76% on the week and 5.77% on the month, but still up 18.24% this year.

A Margin Squeeze Between Beans and Meal

Meal does not trade alone. Processors buy beans, sell meal and oil, and live on the difference. With beans near multi-week lows and meal drifting lower, the question for crushers is whether the product values still cover the raw material cost. The latest reading says the cushion is thinning: the board crush margin slipped to US$2.35 a bushel on 28 October, a two-month low.

What the USDA Balance Sheet Says

The October USDA supply and demand report gives a picture of comfortable supply. It put 2026/27 US meal production at 65.8 million short tons and exports at 22.7 million, leaving ending stocks of only 450,000 short tons. It raised imports from 900,000 to 1 million tons. The world picture includes Argentine meal exports of 29.6 million to 30.0 million tonnes, a large competing supplier.

Ending stocks that small show how much of the crop is expected to be absorbed, which is why the market watches export sales so closely. The next USDA update is due on 10 November at noon Eastern.

The Soybean Backdrop

Beans anchor the complex. The October report lifted the 2026/27 US soybean crop to a record 4.56 billion bushels, and the harvest was 79% complete by 25 October, slightly ahead of the 77% five-year average. Weekly export inspections rose to 2.48 million tonnes.

China remains the largest external variable. Chinese purchases are estimated at 18 to 19 million tonnes, and China's state grain reserve agency plans to auction 400,000 tonnes on 3 November after its last auction sold only about a third of the volume offered. In South America, Parana soybean planting was 62% complete, behind last year's 71%.

What It Means for Processors and Feeders

Meal is both a co-product and a cost. For crushers it is revenue, and for livestock and poultry producers it is feed. ADM and Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) are large oilseed processors whose profits depend on the crush margin, which links the bean price to the combined value of meal and oil, rather than on meal alone. ADM said earlier this year that it expected favourable crushing and ethanol margins in the second half of 2026, and the two-month-low margin shows conditions have been shifting since.

Cheaper meal lowers costs for feeders, while thinner margins trim income for processors. Neither follows automatically from a change in futures, because hedging, volumes and other products also shape results.

Meal Watch: China's Auction, USDA on 10 November and Planting

The calendar is clear. The Chinese state reserve auction is on 3 November and the next USDA supply and demand report is on 10 November. Weekly export sales, Brazilian and Argentine planting and weather, and the spread between December and January contracts as the market moves toward the next front month will also guide prices.

Support could come from a recovery in crush margins, stronger export demand, a weather problem in South America or a better result at the Chinese auction. Further weakness could come from larger Argentine exports, ample US crush output or soybean prices falling beneath recent lows. Weaker margins could also encourage processors to slow crushing, which would reduce meal supply.