Key Highlights

  • Eli Lilly shares are trading at $1,146.12 in Thursday's session, down 0.95%.
  • Detailed Phase 3 ACHIEVE-4 results showed oral Foundayo met non-inferiority on major cardiovascular events versus insulin glargine in type 2 diabetes.
  • Post-hoc ATTAIN-1 modeling pointed to a predicted 57% lower 10-year type 2 diabetes risk at the top dose versus placebo.
  • Analysts maintain Buy-type ratings with price targets of $1,400 to $1,425 ahead of the October 29 third-quarter Earnings report.

Strong Foundayo Data Meets a Weak Healthcare Tape

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is slipping in Thursday's session even as the drugmaker stacked up fresh evidence for Foundayo, its once-daily oral GLP-1 pill. Shares are changing hands near $1,146, down 0.95%, in a market where healthcare stocks are lagging and Wall Street has opened the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

Treasury yields hovering near multi-decade highs are adding pressure to the sector. No company-specific negative has been identified, and analysts have stayed constructive on the stock.

ACHIEVE-4 Clears the Safety Bar but Not a Superiority Test

Detailed Phase 3 ACHIEVE-4 results, presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting, compared Foundayo with titrated insulin glargine in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight at increased cardiovascular risk. The risk of major adverse cardiovascular events was 16% lower on the four-component measure and 23% lower on the three-component measure, meeting the prespecified non-inferiority criteria.

Those reductions were not statistically significant, since the confidence intervals crossed 1, so the trial establishes cardiovascular safety rather than proven superiority. Pre-planned analyses showed a 53% lower risk of cardiovascular death and a 57% lower risk of all-cause death, though these were not the primary measures. At 52 weeks, A1C fell 1.6% on Foundayo versus 1.0% on insulin glargine, alongside improvements in waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and an inflammation marker.

ATTAIN-1 Modeling Points to Lower Long-Term Disease Risk

A second release added post-hoc analyses of the Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial, which randomized 3,127 adults with obesity or overweight and a weight-related condition. At 72 weeks, modeling estimated predicted 10-year type 2 diabetes risk was 45%, 50% and 57% lower than placebo for the 5.5 mg, 9 mg and 17.2 mg doses. The top dose also showed an 18% lower predicted cardiovascular disease risk.

These are model-based projections, not observed outcomes. Thomas Seck, senior vice president of product development at Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, said the findings, together with research on weight-loss cost savings, give the company optimism about long-term benefits for patients and healthcare systems.

October 29 Earnings and a Retatrutide Filing Frame the Next Test

Shares sit roughly 11% below their 52-week high of $1,292.65. Analysts at several brokerages have reiterated Buy and Outperform ratings with price targets of $1,400 to $1,425, citing a broadening portfolio beyond tirzepatide.

Investors are now looking to the third-quarter earnings report on October 29 and a planned retatrutide filing with the FDA in the first quarter of 2027.