Key Highlights

  • TD Cowen raises its 2030 global GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion, up sharply from its March estimate of $139 billion.
  • Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) are projected to control 62% and 31% of the market, respectively.
  • Patient adoption is expected to reach 59 million by 2030, with higher volumes offsetting declining per-treatment prices.
  • Oral GLP-1 therapies are now forecast to account for 14% of total sales, revised up from an earlier 11% estimate.

The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes therapies is poised to be significantly larger than previously anticipated, according to a fresh assessment by TD Cowen — and the two companies that have dominated the space are expected to maintain their stranglehold well into the next decade.

Weight-loss and diabetes drug stocks moved higher in premarket trading on Friday after TD Cowen lifted its global GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion by 2030, citing stronger-than-expected patient adoption and resilient Demand growth despite mounting pricing pressure. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) each gained around 1%, while Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS), a smaller player in the compounded drug space, edged up approximately 0.3%.

Higher Volumes to Offset Price Declines

The revised forecast marks a meaningful upgrade from TD Cowen's March projection of $139 billion. Central to the bull case is patient Volume — the firm now expects approximately 59 million people worldwide to be on GLP-1 therapies by the end of the decade, up from its previous estimate of 46 million. That 28% upward revision in the patient count effectively absorbs the expected drag from declining drug prices, which have come under pressure as competition in the category intensifies and payers push back on premium pricing.

According to the brokerage's earlier modelling, diabetes indications are expected to account for 59% of total GLP-1 sales by 2030, with obesity and weight-loss treatments making up the remaining 41% — a ratio that underscores just how broad the therapeutic reach of this drug class has become.

LLY and NVO Retain Commanding Lead

Despite a growing field of challengers, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are projected to control a combined 93% of GLP-1 Market Value by 2030. TD Cowen assigns Lilly a 62% Market Share, underpinned by its blockbuster tirzepatide Franchise — which includes Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity — as well as Foundayo, its recently launched oral weight-loss pill. Mounjaro has already crossed a milestone rarely seen in pharmaceuticals, recently becoming the world's top-selling drug.

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) is expected to hold a 31% share, supported by the enduring commercial strength of Wegovy and Ozempic, its semaglutide-based products that effectively created the modern GLP-1 boom.

Oral GLP-1s Emerge as the Next Battleground

TD Cowen's upgrade also reflects growing conviction in the oral GLP-1 segment. Non-injectable versions of these therapies are now projected to account for 14% of total category sales by 2030, up from the firm's prior 11% estimate — a revision that signals meaningful commercial momentum for pill-based alternatives to weekly injections.

Novo moved first, launching a daily oral version of Wegovy in January, and prescription data suggests it has gotten off to a strong start. Lilly entered the oral market in April with Foundayo, and while Novo holds an early lead, Lilly has reported that Foundayo has already attracted more than 8,000 prescribers and reached over 20,000 patients — a rapid uptake for a new-to-market pill format.

Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment

Year-to-date, the two giants have diverged sharply in share price performance. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is up approximately 4% in 2026, buoyed partly by its aggressive expansion into oncology through a series of acquisitions. Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO), by contrast, has declined around 15% over the same period, weighed down by competitive concerns and broader uncertainty around its pipeline cadence. Retail sentiment on LLY is currently characterised as bullish, while NVO sentiment sits at neutral.

Broader sector exposure has also struggled. The Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (Nasdaq: OZEM) is down more than 12% so far in 2026, reflecting the uneven performance across the wider GLP-1 ecosystem even as the category's long-term outlook continues to improve.