Key Highlights

  • NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with consensus earnings of USD 0.25 per share in market data.
  • Second-quarter revenue was USD 2.13 billion, down 2% year on year, with diluted earnings of USD 0.31 per share and adjusted EBITDA of USD 283 million, a 13.3% margin.
  • Management guided third-quarter revenue to be flat to up 2% year on year and adjusted EBITDA to be USD 240 million to USD 270 million, tied to Middle East conditions.
  • About USD 40 million of second-quarter EBITDA came from tariff refunds, so the underlying comparison is lower than the reported figure, and the backlog of USD 4.08 billion is a second focus.

The Setup and the Last Guidance

NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) supplies equipment and components to drilling, completion and production operators, and it is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Consensus earnings are USD 0.25 per share in market data, below the USD 0.31 of diluted earnings in the second quarter. The company reported that quarter on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, with revenue of USD 2.13 billion, net income of USD 112 million and adjusted EBITDA of USD 283 million. Energy Equipment revenue was USD 1.22 billion and Energy Products and Services revenue was USD 974 million. For the third quarter, management guided to revenue flat to up 2% and adjusted EBITDA of USD 240 million to USD 270 million. No full-year guidance was given. Results cannot be known in advance.

Why Backlog, Refunds and the Middle East Matter

NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) earns a large share of revenue by building rigs and equipment against a backlog, so orders today set revenue for the following quarters. Energy Equipment booked USD 474 million of orders in the second quarter and shipped USD 638 million from backlog, a book-to-bill ratio of 74%, which left the backlog at USD 4.08 billion, down USD 220 million year on year. Adjusted EBITDA included about USD 40 million from tariff refunds, which are unlikely to recur at that scale. Free cash flow was negative USD 64 million, and the company returned USD 127 million through buybacks and dividends. The company tied its guidance to Middle East conditions, and said a worsening could change results materially.

Risks and What to Watch

The bull case for NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) is adjusted EBITDA at or above the USD 270 million top of the range, a book-to-bill ratio closer to 1.0 and positive free cash flow, which would show demand stabilising without refund support. The bear case is EBITDA near the USD 240 million bottom, a further fall in backlog or weaker offshore and international orders, which could pressure a stock that fell after the July report. Investors should watch Energy Equipment orders, the margin excluding refunds, working capital, repurchase pace against the USD 63 million spent in the second quarter and any first look at 2027 spending. Oil price moves and Middle East developments remain the main external risks.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) faces a USD 0.25 consensus that appears achievable against its own EBITDA guidance, so orders and backlog are likely to set the reaction. A margin that holds without tariff refunds would be a constructive signal. The next catalysts are the release after the close on October 27, the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, after the September 16 increase to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and the management call that follows the release. Consensus figures are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not investment advice.