Key Highlights

  • Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) reports on October 29, 2026 with the Street expecting a loss of about USD 0.23 a share on USD 1.21 billion of revenue, according to published consensus figures.
  • Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55% year on year to USD 120 million, which makes Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) the next test of how much trading activity has really cooled.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is back above USD 81,000, yet that is still about 36.7% below the record set on October 6, 2025, so volumes may stay muted.
  • The Federal Reserve decides on October 28, with a hold priced near 93% and a 10-year yield near 4.995%, which frames risk appetite before Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) reports.

What the Street Expects

The consensus calls for a loss of about USD 0.23 a share on USD 1.21 billion of revenue. A loss forecast for an exchange operator is notable because the business depends on activity: when traders buy and sell less, transaction fees shrink while fixed costs for engineering, compliance and staff stay in place. The estimates come from one consensus table, so the figures may differ slightly from other providers and should be read as approximate. A loss of this size would be a sharp contrast with the profits that investors associate with the crypto cycle when prices were rising. The report is expected on October 29, 2026, the day after the Federal Reserve decision and alongside several other large releases, so the reaction may reflect the macro tone as much as the numbers.

The Robinhood Read-Through

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) reported on October 27, 2026 that crypto revenue fell 55% to USD 120 million, while prediction markets contributed about USD 173 million in the release text. That split shows retail customers moving toward event contracts rather than coins. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) serves both retail and institutional clients, so its mix differs, but the direction of volume is the key comparison. If Robinhood's drop reflects the whole market, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) would face the same pressure on transaction revenue. If the drop is specific to retail, institutional activity could cushion the result. The two companies report on different days, so the comparison is a clue and not a forecast, and the company's own commentary will settle the question.

Risks and What to Watch

The main risk is that trading volume stays low while Bitcoin (BTC) trades far below its record of USD 128,198. Another is that the Federal Reserve sounds more hawkish, since December hike odds sit near 73% to 75%. The loss estimate also leaves room for a surprise in either direction, because small revenue differences swing earnings sharply when costs are fixed. Investors should watch transaction volume, any commentary on stablecoin and subscription income, and expense guidance. The result will be released on October 29, 2026, so every figure here is a forecast, not an outcome. A beat or a miss will therefore be measured against these bars, and guidance for the fourth quarter will likely get at least as much attention as the quarter just reported.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) will report a loss because trading volume, its main revenue driver, has cooled, if the consensus is right. The Robinhood figures suggest the decline is real in retail crypto. The result on October 29 will show whether institutions and other income lines offset it. Everything here is a forecast, and Bitcoin sitting about 36.7% below its record is the backdrop. This is not investment advice.