Key Highlights

● Applied Materials reports after Thursday's bell.

● Revenue is expected near $10.25 billion.

● Investors want to know if AI Demand is pulling orders forward.

● They also want China commentary.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) reports after the bell on Thursday, and investors in chip-equipment stocks are watching for two things: whether AI demand is still pulling orders forward, and what the company says about China. The largest US semiconductor-equipment maker is expected to post about $10.25 billion in Revenue and adjusted Earnings of $4.02 a share. Options imply a move of roughly 7.9% either way.

Applied, a member of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, makes the deposition, etch and inspection tools used to build chips.

The China question

China has been a sore spot for the group. In October 2025, reports said that Applied flagged a roughly $600 million hit to fiscal 2026 revenue after the Commerce Department widened its export blacklist to cover majority-owned subsidiaries of listed Chinese companies. Under that rule, Applied needs licenses to ship some products and services to certain China-based customers.

Thursday's report covers the final quarter of the fiscal year in which that hit was expected. Investors will want to know how China revenue actually tracked and what management assumes for fiscal 2027.

The policy backdrop has turned more uncertain this week. Reports said that Chinese authorities urged Washington not to use the allegations swirling around Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, including reported ties to a woman US intelligence reportedly suspects of spying, to justify more export restrictions. Those allegations have not been independently confirmed, and Nvidia's board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. Still, any talk of tighter controls is a risk for equipment makers with large China sales.

Momentum meets a weak open

Chip stocks came into Thursday on a strong run. The PHLX Semiconductor index jumped 5.7% on Wednesday, its highest finish since Nov. 3, with every component higher. Jefferies initiated Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) with a Buy and a $284 target, sending that stock up 8.30%.

The premarket mood is different. Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) was down about 1.9% early Thursday, along with Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Asian chip stocks also slipped. Samsung and SK Hynix fell in Seoul, and the Kospi lost 0.61% after rising 2.60% the day before.

Equipment stocks are one step removed from Nvidia's Leadership story. Their customers are foundries and memory makers whose Capital plans depend on the overall AI build-out, not on one CEO. If Applied signals steady demand, it could help separate the equipment group from Nvidia-specific selling.

What to Watch Next on Chip Equipment Applied Materials

The bear case is that equipment orders are lumpy, memory makers can delay tool purchases quickly, and China export rules can shift with little warning. A strong quarter paired with a cautious outlook has often been enough to send these stocks lower. With the 10-year Treasury Yield near 5%, valuations also have less cushion.

The bull case rests on AI-related spending at leading-edge logic and high-bandwidth memory. A confident outlook could revive Wednesday's rally.

Watch Applied's guidance for the January quarter, any comments on China mix, and whether management describes customer demand as broadening. Lam and KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC) are likely to move in after-hours trading on the read-through. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)'s results, also after the bell, add a second AI-infrastructure data point.