Key Highlights

  • WTI crude settled at USD 102.78 on October 28, 2026 in one reading and traded near USD 101.43 to USD 101.64 on Thursday, keeping United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) tied to a market near USD 100.
  • Brent ranged between USD 110 and USD 115, with a settle of USD 115.32 and Thursday quotes near USD 110.3 to USD 110.7, about USD 40 above its pre-war level of roughly USD 72.
  • Oil fell 1.2% to 1.3% on Thursday on a new US-Iran proposal, while energy was the third-best sector on October 28, 2026, up 0.35%, according to published market data.
  • Fed officials cite energy as an inflation risk, which links oil to the December hike debate and to the outlook for United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO).

Oil Stays Near USD 100

West Texas Intermediate crude settled at USD 102.78 on October 28, 2026, up 2.88%, in one reading, while Thursday quotes were near USD 101.43 to USD 101.64. Brent settled at USD 115.32, up 1.26%, in the same reading, while Thursday quotes were near USD 110.32 to USD 110.69. These figures conflict: a 1.2% fall from USD 115.32 would give about USD 113.9, simple arithmetic, so one set of quotes is stale. This article therefore uses ranges. A level of roughly USD 72 before the war began in late February implies prices about USD 40 above that base. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) tracks near-term crude futures.

How the Fund Tracks Oil

The fund holds near-month crude futures contracts rather than barrels of oil. Each month it sells the expiring contract and buys the next, so returns depend on both the spot move and the cost of rolling. When later contracts cost more than expiring ones, each roll drags on returns, and when they cost less, rolling helps. The new US-Iran proposal pushed oil down 1.2% to 1.3% on Thursday, and diplomatic news can move futures within hours. Energy was the third-best sector on October 28, up 0.35%, even as the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98. No move in United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) was verified, so none is cited.

Risks and What to Watch

Oil at these levels feeds inflation, which is why Fed officials cite energy as a risk, and the PCE report at 7:30 a.m. ET on October 29 may show the effect. A diplomatic deal could pull prices lower quickly, while a collapse in talks could push them back up, so single-day moves can be large. The quotes cited here conflict by up to USD 5, so the true level may differ. Supermajor earnings on October 30, including Exxon and Chevron, are the next company catalysts. Investors in USO (NYSEARCA:USO) should size exposure for volatility, since the fund can lose value quickly if prices reverse. Rolling costs can also cut returns even when spot prices are flat.

Where Things Stand

Oil is still near USD 100 for WTI because the Iran war that began in late February left Brent roughly USD 40 above its prior level, and a new US-Iran proposal has only trimmed prices so far. For United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), the answer is that diplomacy and inflation data now drive the near-term path. The quotes conflict by up to USD 5, so ranges are safer than single prints.