Key Highlights

  • USD 100 billion is the most Nvidia signed up to invest in OpenAI, tied to OpenAI deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, a structure a market commentator describes as circular financing.
  • 10 gigawatts is also the scale of the custom chips Broadcom is building for OpenAI, according to the commentary, alongside 6 gigawatts agreed with AMD in a separate deal.
  • About USD 22.4 billion of OpenAI contracts sits with CoreWeave, which Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) part-owns, according to the commentary, an example of the supplier-customer links it highlights.
  • USD 1.25 trillion is the lowered target OpenAI reportedly set for its bridge round, down from USD 1.4 trillion, after investors resisted, and the commentator says Sam Altman ruled out a listing this year.

The Deal Terms

According to a market commentator writing on October 26, 2026, Nvidia signed up to invest as much as USD 100 billion in OpenAI as OpenAI deploys at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems. The commentary places this beside similar arrangements: AMD agreed to Supply 6 gigawatts and gave OpenAI warrants over up to 160 million AMD shares, Oracle's contract is reported at about USD 300 billion over five years, and Amazon rents OpenAI USD 38 billion of computing and put up to USD 50 billion into its March round. He adds that press reports count about USD 665 billion of purchase commitments in OpenAI's accounts. These figures come from company announcements and press reports as cited by him.

Why It Looks Circular

His argument is about the direction of the money. The supplier funds the customer, the customer pays the supplier, and the supplier books the payment as revenue. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one such supplier, and the commentary says CoreWeave, which Nvidia part-owns, holds about USD 22.4 billion of OpenAI contracts. In his view the only income from outside this circle is what businesses and consumers pay per token, plus whoever buys the IPOs. A counterpoint he acknowledges is that OpenAI passed a billion users on July 31, so real Demand exists. His disagreement is over whether that demand can pay for commitments of this size, given how much of it he expects to be price competition.

Risks and What to Watch

The commentary says OpenAI asked investors for USD 30 billion at a USD 1.4 trillion valuation, met resistance and cut the target to USD 1.25 trillion, still above the USD 852 billion of March. He adds that OpenAI is leaning toward an IPO in 2027 and that Anthropic could list first, possibly in November, at a USD 2 trillion target. If public investors price these labs lower, he argues, supplier-funded demand for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could be questioned. That is his opinion, resting on his own assumptions, and the Investment is described as up to a ceiling, not a fixed payment. Readers should treat the commitments as announced intentions that depend on delivery of the systems.

Where Things Stand

The commentator's critique of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s OpenAI arrangement is that supplier money returns to the supplier as revenue, which he calls circular. The deal terms themselves, up to USD 100 billion tied to at least 10 gigawatts, are as he reports them from company announcements. Supporters of such structures could point to OpenAI's billion users and to the long-term nature of data centre builds, and he does not dispute the user figure. What is unresolved is how public markets will price the labs. Nothing here is investment advice.