Key Highlights

  • Brent crude traded in a range of roughly USD 110 to 117 a barrel on October 30, 2026, headed for a gain of about 13 percent in October, its fourth straight monthly rise, based on published market data.
  • The December Brent contract settled at USD 114.88 on October 29 while the more active January contract closed at USD 110.80, and West Texas Intermediate settled near USD 102.
  • United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds Oil Futures contracts, so its results follow the futures curve and not only the headline price, which matters after a month this volatile.
  • Diplomacy headlines pulled prices lower on October 29, but signs that US strikes on Iran could resume after the November 3 midterm elections pushed them higher again on October 30.

What Moved Oil This Week

Oil swung between two stories this week. On October 29, 2026, renewed diplomacy, including a letter from Vice President JD Vance and a draft proposal mediated by Qatar, eased Supply fears, and the December Brent contract settled at USD 114.88, down 0.38 percent, according to published market data. West Texas Intermediate settled near USD 102, down 0.76 percent. On October 30, reports that a senior US military officer had briefed President Trump on Options for Iran, and Trump's suggestion that strikes could resume after the November 3 midterms, lifted prices again. Published accounts of the October 30 close differ, so this article uses ranges: Brent between USD 110 and 117 and West Texas Intermediate near USD 103 to 104.

Why Supply Stays Tight and How the Fund Works

Physical limits keep a floor under prices. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) management has tied 2026 fuel margins to roughly 3 million barrels a day of refining capacity cut off by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities kept risk elevated. Offsetting this, Russian refinery runs have rebounded. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) buys near-month West Texas Intermediate futures and rolls them forward, so its return depends on the curve shape as well as spot. January Brent sat USD 4.08 below December, simple arithmetic on two settlements, a pattern that generally helps a long futures holder, though the West Texas Intermediate curve was not confirmed.

Risks and What to Watch

The risk is two sided. A diplomatic breakthrough could remove part of the risk premium within days, while strikes or a Hormuz disruption could send prices sharply higher. Overnight claims about tanker explosions near the strait come from a single party and are not treated here as fact. Oil near USD 100 also feeds Inflation and the Federal Reserve debate, which can weigh on equities and on the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE). Key dates are the November 3 midterm elections and the October jobs report on November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) can also lag spot moves when contract rolls are costly.

Where Things Stand

Brent is still above USD 110 because supply risk, not demand, is setting the price: it traded between USD 110 and 117 on October 30 after a 13 percent October gain, and diplomacy has so far trimmed prices only in small steps. The balance of evidence points to a market that can move several dollars on a single headline in either direction. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) offers exposure through futures, with roll effects and no guarantee of tracking spot.