Key Highlights

  • A market commentator cites JPMorgan's view that AI stocks made up 75% of the S&P 500's returns between ChatGPT's launch in November 2022 and September 2025. Funds like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) track that index.
  • Because index funds hold stocks by weight, the commentator argues, a fall in AI valuations would reach pensions and other long-term savers who hold such funds.
  • At a USD 2 trillion target, the commentator says Anthropic would be valued at 36 times the commentator's estimate of its 2026 revenue, or 22 times its Revenue run rate at the end of 2026.
  • The commentator expects the shares to trade below USD 2 trillion within a year of listing, and calls the piece opinion, not a recommendation. The commentary gives no price moves for ETFs.

The JPMorgan Concentration View

A market commentator's October 26, 2026 piece cites JPMorgan's view that AI stocks accounted for 75% of the S&P 500's returns between ChatGPT's launch in November 2022 and September 2025. The commentator uses the figure to argue that the broad market now leans heavily on one theme. Anthropic's S-1, filed on October 26, 2026, shows revenue of USD 16.3B for the first half of 2026, and the commentary says a listing could come as soon as November with a USD 2 trillion target. Index vehicles such as SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) hold the S&P 500, so the concentration question applies to their holders as well.

How The USD 2 Trillion Maths Works

The commentary values Anthropic at USD 2 trillion and compares that with revenue. It says the valuation equals 36 times the commentator's own estimate of 2026 revenue, or 22 times the revenue rate at the end of 2026. Those are the commentator's figures, and the year-end rate rests on the commentator's USD 22.4B fourth-quarter estimate, annualized to USD 89.6B. Simple arithmetic on those two numbers gives about 22 times, matching the commentary. The mechanism the commentator describes is a chain in which private prices were set between companies that need each other, and a public listing sets a price every trading day. Index Funds and pensions then carry whatever repricing follows.

Risks And What To Watch

The commentator is bearish, and these views are the commentator's, not ours. The 75% figure is a share of past returns and does not forecast future ones, and the commentary gives no S&P 500 or fund price moves. The valuation multiples rely on the commentator's revenue estimates, including a third quarter figure that is reported but not confirmed. Anthropic's final prospectus is expected to confirm or correct the draft numbers, and the commentary says OpenAI's own IPO is now leaning toward 2027. The listing date, the final valuation and any index inclusion are the next items to watch, because each would change the comparison the commentator draws.

Where Things Stand

The question is why AI's 75% share of S&P 500 returns matters to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY). A market commentator cites JPMorgan's view that AI stocks drove 75% of the index's returns from November 2022 to September 2025, and argues that an Anthropic listing near USD 2 trillion would test that concentration. The same commentary puts the valuation at 36 times its 2026 revenue estimate and 22 times the year-end run rate. These are opinions and estimates, not forecasts, and no ETF price moves are given. The final prospectus is the next check.