Key Highlights

  • XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) fell about 50% to near USD 15.18 in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026, after Lula won Brazil's runoff on Sunday, October 25 with 51.78%.
  • The company has not issued a release explaining the move, which follows a sell-off in Brazilian assets after polls had favoured Flavio Bolsonaro before the vote.
  • Second-quarter net income was BRL 1.384 billion, up 5% year on year, with client assets of BRL 1.535 trillion and a Basel capital ratio of 20.3%.
  • Pre-market data showed a fall of about 45%, so the intraday decline is larger than that of Nubank and most Brazilian peers.

A Brazilian Broker Reprices Overnight

XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) is Brazil's largest independent investment platform, and its US shares fell about 50% in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the runoff on Sunday, October 25 with 51.78%, against polls that favoured Flavio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator. Pre-market data showed a decline of about 45%, and the price near USD 15.18 implies a prior close of about USD 30.40. The company has not issued a release explaining the move, and no corporate event, offering or reverse split has been announced. Investors worried that fiscal spending under the new government could raise inflation, interest rates and funding costs. All prices described here are intraday and may change quickly.

How Politics Reaches a Brokerage

For XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP), revenue depends on client assets, trading activity and fixed income distribution, all of which respond to confidence in local markets. The company reported second-quarter results on Monday, August 17, 2026, with net revenue of BRL 4.884 billion, net income of BRL 1.384 billion and diluted earnings of BRL 2.67 per share. Adjusted return on average equity was 22.5%, against 24.4% a year earlier. Client assets reached BRL 1.535 trillion, with net inflows of BRL 28 billion. A weaker real reduces the dollar value of those earnings, while higher local rates raise funding costs and can slow equity issuance. The size of the fall exceeds that of peers, and the company has not commented on the difference.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk for XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) is a prolonged dispute over the result, since Flavio Bolsonaro has reportedly sought to challenge the runoff. The second is fiscal: the new government has not named an economic team or published a budget plan, and the policy rate stands at 14.00%. A third is outflows, because retail clients may reduce risk assets after a sharp fall. Offsetting that, capital is strong, with a common equity tier 1 ratio of 17.1% and a BRL 1 billion buyback programme still open. Investors should watch the economic team appointments, the reopening of B3, the Sao Paulo exchange, on Monday, October 26 and the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) fell about 50% because Brazil's election result reversed positioning built on polls, and no company event has been announced. Fundamentals at the August report were solid, with net income up 5% and capital well above requirements. The scale of the decline, however, signals that investors are pricing a sharp rise in policy risk. The next catalysts are the B3 session on Monday, October 26, 2026, the economic team appointments and the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28. Opening prices can reverse, and this is not investment advice.