Key Highlights

  • StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE) fell about 31% to near USD 7.87 in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026, after Lula won Brazil's runoff on Sunday, October 25 with 51.78%.
  • Pre-market data showed a decline of about 36% to USD 7.38, and the company has not issued a release explaining the move.
  • Consensus estimates point to third-quarter earnings of USD 0.49 per share on revenue of about USD 715 million, with results scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026.
  • The consensus rating is Buy with an average target of USD 13.68, while UBS has a Buy rating with a target of USD 13.00.

A Payments Group Caught in the Sell-Off

StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE) provides card acquiring and financial services to Brazilian merchants, and its US shares fell about 31% in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026. In pre-market trading, market data showed a decline of about 36% to USD 7.38. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the runoff on Sunday, October 25 with 51.78%, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator. Investors had expected a Bolsonaro government to pursue business-friendly reforms, spending restraint and privatisation, and Brazilian equities had rallied sharply after he led the first round. The price near USD 7.87 implies a prior close of about USD 11.48. The company has not issued a release explaining the move.

How Rates and Spending Reach Merchant Payments

For StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE), the exposure runs through the domestic economy. Card volumes rise and fall with consumer and small business spending, and the company funds its lending and prepayment of receivables with local borrowing. Higher rates raise that cost, and a weaker real lowers the dollar value of earnings. A UBS strategist cited in market commentary said the first-round rally could largely reverse and that sentiment would stay weak until a credible plan for debt stabilisation emerges. At the price near USD 7.87, the shares trade at roughly 4 times earnings on the data available, which shows how much risk investors are pricing. The estimate for the next quarter is USD 0.49 per share, against USD 0.47 a year earlier.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk for StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE) is a prolonged political dispute over the result. The second is fiscal: the policy rate stands at 14.00%, and no economic team or budget plan has been announced. A third is cooperation with a Congress that leans towards the opposition, which a strategist called critical to any credible plan. Offsetting that, the consensus rating is Buy, although Jefferies holds a Hold rating with a target of USD 12.60. Investors should watch the reopening of B3, the Sao Paulo exchange, on Monday, October 26, the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28, the economic team appointments and third-quarter results on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that StoneCo (NASDAQ:STNE) fell about 31% because Brazil's election result reversed positioning built on polls, and the company has announced no event of its own. Analyst targets of USD 12.60 to USD 13.68 sit far above the early price, though they predate the vote and may be revised. The next catalysts are the B3 session on Monday, October 26, 2026, the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28 and results on Thursday, November 12. Early trading is volatile, and this is not investment advice.