Key Highlights

  • PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) traded at USD 78.13, up 2.57%, on October 26, 2026, with a USD 9.36 billion market value, P/E of 6.91, trailing EPS of USD 11.31 and a 1.44% yield, after closing down 3.89% on October 23.
  • Second quarter adjusted earnings were USD 6.22 per share against a consensus of USD 4.12, with revenue of USD 11.68 billion and a refining gross margin of USD 23.40 per barrel, up from USD 8.38.
  • Net debt of PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) was USD 855.0 million at June 30 after gross debt fell by more than USD 1 billion, and capital spending is guided to USD 825 million to USD 875 million.
  • Third quarter crude throughput guidance for PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) is 900,000 to 960,000 barrels per day, above the second quarter average of 887,300, and results are due on October 29, 2026.

Reversal Days

PBF closed at USD 76.17 on October 23, down 3.89% from USD 79.25, even as oil rose almost USD 3 that day, and it rebounded 2.57% on October 26 while crude eased. That pattern shows the stock is not a simple oil proxy. A refiner buys crude as its main cost and sells gasoline and diesel, so profit depends on the spread between them, not on crude alone. Analysts hold the consensus at Hold with an average target near USD 84, while BofA raised its target to USD 65 from USD 60 but kept Underperform and TD Cowen moved to USD 75 from USD 73.

Margins and Cash Generation

Second quarter throughput averaged 887,300 barrels per day, and the company said tight global supply and demand balances keep refining fundamentals strong, according to CEO Matt Lucey. Adjusted earnings of USD 6.22 per share beat estimates by about USD 2.10, simple arithmetic. Cash was USD 894.1 million, total debt USD 1,749.1 million, and the quarterly dividend is USD 0.275. In September the company priced USD 500 million of zero coupon exchangeable notes due 2032. A higher oil price helps when product prices rise faster, which was the case in the second quarter. Refining gross margin was USD 23.40 per barrel excluding special items, against USD 14.20 on a consolidated basis.

Risks and Dates

The main risks are narrower crack spreads if crude outruns fuel prices, outages or turnarounds, and political pressure. A media report in August said the administration planned to meet refiners and fuel retailers about gasoline prices ahead of the midterm elections. Five major turnarounds were planned this year. Goldman Sachs raised its target to USD 91 from USD 81 and Citi to USD 91 from USD 74 in early October, both with Neutral ratings, so the market already anticipates strong margins. The October 29 report will show third quarter margins, and investors will weigh whether the second quarter margin of USD 23.40 per barrel can persist.

Where Things Stand

PBF rose after a drop because refiners trade on margins, not on the crude headline, which answers the headline in part. Oil near USD 102 can help or hurt, depending on fuel prices. PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) has strong recent earnings, falling debt and a low earnings multiple, while analysts remain cautious on how long margins last. The balance of evidence is mixed. The next catalyst is the October 29 results.