Key Highlights

  • Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to USD 105 a barrel from USD 90 and its 2027 average to USD 88 from USD 80, a key datapoint for United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO).
  • OPEC+ core members met on Sunday, November 1, 2026 and agreed to keep September required production for December, with a joint target of about 31 million barrels per day.
  • Saudi Arabia's Quota is 10.478 million barrels per day and Russia's is 9.949 million, though most members are producing below targets because of the Iran war.
  • Brent quotes differ by timing and venue: published figures show USD 113.43 to USD 117.64 on October 30 and about USD 109.10 on November 2, above Goldman's USD 105.

What Goldman and OPEC+ Decided

Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 Brent forecast on November 2, 2026, citing elevated supply-security risks after more than eight months of disrupted Middle East supply. Its 2027 average moved to USD 88 from USD 80. On November 1, seven core OPEC+ members agreed to maintain September required production for December, with the next meeting set for November 29. The unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts finished in September, and a further 2 million barrels per day of earlier cuts stays until the end of 2026. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds futures contracts linked to West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark.

A Forecast Below the Market Price

The notable feature is that USD 105 sits below recent Brent prices. A forecast can rise and still imply a decline from spot, which here reflects a risk premium that Goldman's Daan Struyven said would likely need a sustainable diplomatic solution to fade. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas, has been effectively shut since fighting began on February 28, 2026, and at least 35 commercial vessels were attacked in October. Reports differ on whether Gulf flows have recovered. Because United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds futures, rolling contracts can add or subtract return beyond spot moves.

Risks and What to Watch Next

Prices could fall quickly if US and Iranian diplomacy produces a durable deal, which analysts consider unlikely by year end, or jump if hostilities resume after the November 3 midterm elections. OPEC+ output is largely constrained by the war rather than by quotas, so the headline decision matters less than usual. Watch the November 29 OPEC+ meeting, tanker attacks, weekly inventory data and any change to the 2027 quota review, which could alter the Supply outlook. Oil prices also feed Inflation expectations and Central Bank decisions this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia on November 3 and the Bank of England on November 5. This is not advice.

Where Things Stand

Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to USD 105 because war-related supply risk has not faded, even though the new number is below recent market prices. OPEC+ left targets unchanged, which keeps focus on Hormuz rather than quotas. The outlook depends on diplomacy and military events that no one can forecast with confidence. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) investors should watch the gap between spot prices, futures curves and Goldman's path.