Key Highlights

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time, with a 25 basis point hike to 4.85% expected, relevant to Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA).
  • The cash rate is 4.60% after a hike on September 29, the fourth of 2026, which took it to a 15-year high, the highest level in 15 years.
  • A poll of economists found 31 of 32 expecting a hike, with Deutsche Bank the lone forecaster expecting a hold, and markets priced roughly a 70% to 85% chance in recent snapshots.
  • Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred core measure, was 3.6% year on year in the September quarter, and Unemployment has risen to 4.7%, according to published economist previews.

What Is Expected on November 3

The Reserve Bank of Australia board meets on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with the decision due at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time. The cash rate is 4.60% and a quarter-point rise would take it to 4.85%. The September quarter Inflation data released on October 28 left the board little reason to soften its stance, although summaries of the headline annual rate differ, from 3.7% to 4.3%, so readers should check the official statistics release. The decision is a preview, not a result. Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA) holds Australian dollar deposits and tracks the currency against the US dollar, with any deposit interest earned less fees.

The Case for a Hike and the Case for a Hold

The hike case rests on Core Inflation at 3.6% and a governor who has repeatedly said inflation is too high. Fuel was the largest driver of the September quarter rise, tied to the Middle East conflict and oil near USD 109 Brent on November 2. The hold case, made by Deutsche Bank, is that inflation is tracking the central bank's own forecasts, unemployment has reached 4.7% earlier than expected and the board could wait for December data and clearer oil prices after the US midterms. It pointed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's surprise hold last week. Higher rates can support Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA), but only if the move or guidance exceeds what markets already expect.

Risks and What to Watch Next

Surprise is the main risk. A hold when 31 of 32 economists expect a hike could send the Australian dollar lower, while a hike with hints of more could lift it. Watch the statement wording, any reference to a further move in February, updated forecasts and comments on the labour market. Global factors matter too: oil prices, the Bank of England decision on November 5 and the US jobs report on November 6 can all shift currency trends. Higher borrowing costs also press households with mortgages, and a softer jobs market could slow the pace of tightening. Oil moves that reverse after the midterms could change the inflation outlook quickly. This is context, not advice.

Where Things Stand

A hike to 4.85% looks likely because core inflation remains at 3.6% and almost every surveyed economist expects one, but the decision is not made until 2:30 p.m. Sydney time on November 3. The dissenting hold argument has substance given the rise in unemployment and the New Zealand precedent. Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA) will reflect whether the outcome and the board's guidance match what markets already expect, and the next catalysts are the Bank of England on November 5 and US jobs data on November 6.