Key Highlights

  • September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP are due at 7:30 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026, with jobless claims, the first inflation read after the Fed hold that matters for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY).
  • Markets price a December hike at about 81% to 85%, after the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10 to 2 vote with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike.
  • This is a preview: consensus numbers from one calendar page conflict, with PCE at 3.6% or 3.4%, core at 3.1% or 2.40%, and GDP at 3.2% against a 2.2% prior, so none is adopted.
  • The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98 on October 28, 2026, according to published market data, so SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) enters the data with a three-day winning streak in the index.

The Data Due Today

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP at 7:30 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026, alongside weekly jobless claims. This is a preview written before the release. The only consensus numbers found come from a single calendar page and are internally inconsistent: PCE of 3.6% in one table and 3.4% in another, core PCE of 3.1% against 2.40%, GDP of 3.2% against a 2.2% prior, and claims of 198,000 against 194,000. Because they cannot all be right, this article states the conflict and does not adopt any figure. Readers should compare the release with the BEA figures. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) tracks the large-cap index.

Why the Fed Is Watching

PCE is the price index the Federal Reserve prefers for its inflation target. The Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, one month after the first hike in about three years, and two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, wanted a hike. The statement described the economy as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as elevated. Markets priced a December hike at about 81% to 85%, so a hotter reading could push that higher and weigh on equities, while a cooler one could ease it. Higher rate expectations raise discount rates on stocks, which is why SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) reacts to inflation data.

Risks and What to Watch

The rally has been narrow: the equal-weight S&P 500 slipped 0.04% on October 28 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 1.75%, and utilities fell 0.84%. A hot PCE reading would hit rate-sensitive sectors first, and a 10-year yield above 5% leaves little room. Other events today are the 7-year Treasury auction at 12:00 p.m. ET, Amazon and Intel results after the close, and the December 8 to 9 Fed meeting, which will include projections. Investors in SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) should expect volatility around the 7:30 a.m. ET release, as bond yields and equities can swing within minutes, and should check actual figures rather than the conflicting consensus quoted here.

Where Things Stand

PCE and GDP could decide the December hike because they are the first inflation and growth readings after a hawkish Fed hold, and markets already price a hike above 80%. For SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), a hot reading would raise the odds and a soft one would lower them. This is a preview with unreliable consensus, so the results, not the forecasts, will settle the question.