Key Highlights

  • Novartis (NYSE:NVS) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, before the Swiss market open, against consensus earnings of USD 2.24 per American depositary share, about 7% below second-quarter core earnings of USD 2.41.
  • The second-quarter report of Tuesday, July 21, 2026 showed net sales of USD 14.4 billion, up 1% in constant currencies, and core operating income of USD 5.9 billion at a margin of 41.2%.
  • Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed: low single-digit net sales growth and a low single-digit decline in core operating income, both in constant currencies, with currency adding about 1 point.
  • Kisqali grew 43% and Kesimpta 32% in the second quarter, while Entresto fell about 51% on generic competition, so the balance of growth and erosion decides the reading.

The Setup After a Return to Growth

Novartis (NYSE:NVS), the Swiss pharmaceutical group focused on innovative medicines, reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, ahead of the Swiss market open. Consensus earnings in the calendar are USD 2.24 per American depositary share, which may be on a different basis from the core earnings measure the company reports. In the second quarter, net sales were USD 14.4 billion, up 3% in dollars and 1% in constant currencies. Core operating income was USD 5.9 billion, flat, with a margin of 41.2%, and core earnings were USD 2.41 per share, flat in dollars. Operating income fell 3% and net income fell 19%. Free cash flow was USD 5.6 billion, down 12%. Results cannot be known in advance.

Why Growth Brands and Generics Shape the Quarter

Novartis is judged on whether new medicines grow faster than older ones lose sales to generics. In the second quarter, Kisqali for breast cancer sold USD 1,695 million, up 43% in constant currencies, and Kesimpta for multiple sclerosis sold USD 1,424 million, up 32%. Scemblix grew 89% to USD 562 million, Pluvicto for prostate cancer grew 43% to USD 651 million and Leqvio grew 59% to USD 480 million. Entresto, the heart failure drug, fell about 51% to USD 1,181 million as generics arrived. Recent pipeline events include European and Japanese approval of Rhapsido for chronic spontaneous urticaria, European approval of Itvisma for spinal muscular atrophy and a filed application for del-zota in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Barclays has cut its target on the shares to CHF 125.

Risks and What to Watch

The bull case is net sales growth above the low single-digit guided pace, a core operating margin holding near 41% and a raised full-year outlook, which would challenge the Hold consensus and could lift the shares. Core earnings at or above the USD 2.41 of the second quarter would also read as a clear beat of the estimate. The bear case is Kisqali growth falling well below 43%, faster Entresto erosion, a margin near 40% or a United States pricing action, which could leave the shares near the levels behind the Barclays cut. Investors should watch core operating income against the guided decline, free cash flow, the new approvals and the Swiss franc. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that Novartis (NYSE:NVS) must show that Kisqali, Kesimpta and the newer launches can outrun Entresto erosion, as the USD 2.24 estimate sits below the USD 2.41 of the second quarter and so looks undemanding. A margin near 41% and a reaffirmed outlook would confirm the path, while a cut to guidance would not. The next catalysts are the results on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and pipeline updates on del-zota. Consensus figures are estimates, and this is not investment advice.