Key Highlights

  • United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds near-month WTI futures, and WTI settled at USD 101.57 on October 26, 2026 while Brent settled near USD 115.81, up about 12% this month in published market data.
  • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) holds large US energy companies as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
  • SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) holds physical gold, which held near USD 4,038 with silver at USD 54.04 and a real yield of 2.63%. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) holds long Treasury bonds and faces a 30-year yield of 5.30%.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 1.2% to about USD 79,800 with USD 169 million of spot fund outflows, roughly 37.8% below its record of USD 128,198 set on October 6, 2025 in published market data.

United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO): Oil Fund Tracks WTI Futures

Brent crude settled near USD 115.81 a barrel on Monday, October 26, 2026, and WTI settled at USD 101.57, in published market data. Oil is up about 12% this month, and Brent reached a six-month high near USD 117 last week. One live account placed Brent at USD 110 to 112, which differs from the settlement price, so this article treats USD 115.81 as the settlement and the lower range as an intraday reading. The gap between Brent and WTI, at about USD 14, shows how tight the global market is outside the United States, where buyers compete for seaborne crude. Price moves of this size also feed through to fuel costs for airlines, shippers and consumers. Diplomacy and violence are pulling in opposite directions. Talks between the United States and Iran could ease supply fears, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raise them. The Houthis say they attacked Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia says its air defenses intercepted the attack, so the claims are unconfirmed in detail and the market has to price both possibilities.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE): Energy Fund and the Reserve

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a government stockpile of crude oil stored in underground salt caverns. Presidents can release oil from it during supply shocks to calm prices. At 282.6 million barrels, the reserve is at its lowest level since 1982, according to Energy Department data cited in two accounts. A smaller stock means fewer barrels to release if fighting involving Iran escalates, and it limits how long any release could offset a supply loss. Brent crude settled near USD 115.81 on October 26, 2026 and WTI at USD 101.57, so the cushion is thin at a time when prices are already high and the political calendar is crowded. A media report said officials had been told to prepare for strikes within 96 hours and that Washington faces a choice between finishing the conflict and reaching a deal. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) gives investors exposure to oil and gas producers, which benefit when prices rise, although they also face cost pressures and political risk. A release from the reserve would lower prices in the short term and could weigh on the shares of producers.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD): Gold Holds Near USD 4,038

Gold futures for December delivery closed at USD 4,038.40 an ounce on Monday, October 26, 2026, and silver was USD 54.04, in published market data. Other quotes were USD 4,025.40, USD 4,011.60 and about USD 4,000, depending on the time of day, so the metal held near USD 4,000 without a clear break in either direction. The steadying followed a drop earlier in October. Gold funds recorded USD 2.3 billion of outflows, which shows that some investors sold even as the price stabilized, and it suggests that conviction among holders is mixed. Flow data and price data can move in opposite directions over short periods, and silver at USD 54.04 followed the same pattern. The precise intraday low and high were not available, so no range is given beyond the quotes cited. Gold pays no interest, so its appeal falls when yields on inflation-protected bonds rise. The real yield was 2.63% on October 26, 2026, high by recent standards, and the 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.99%. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) holds physical bullion in vaults and its share price tracks the metal after fees.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT): Long Bonds Near 5.30%

The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.99% on October 26, 2026 and the 30-year yield was 5.30%, in published market data. Quotes for the 10-year differ slightly, at 4.987%, 4.984% and 4.997%, because of timing. Yields close to 5% are the macro overhang on equities going into the Federal Reserve decision on October 28. A USD 69 billion auction of 2-year notes cleared at 4.708% and drew a record share of direct bids, a sign that some investors are willing to lock in yields at current levels. The 5-year note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET on October 27 is the next test of demand for government debt. Bond prices move opposite to yields. A long bond is more sensitive than a short one because its cash flows are paid further in the future, a property called duration. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) holds Treasury bonds with maturities above 20 years, so a rise in the 30-year yield lowers the fund's price by more than it would lower the price of a 2-year note fund.

Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin Slips Under USD 80,000

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.2% to about USD 79,800 on Monday, October 26, 2026, slipping just under the round USD 80,000 level that traders watch. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded USD 169 million of net outflows, meaning more money left the funds than entered. The previous Friday's outflow of USD 635 million was the largest since June, but the full week still took in USD 443 million, so flows have been uneven rather than one-directional. Ether (ETH) fell more than Bitcoin, down 2.3% to about USD 2,303. The final close for October 26 was not available when this article was written, so the levels are approximate. Bitcoin's record is USD 128,198, set on October 6, 2025. At about USD 79,800 the price is roughly 37.8% below that peak. One-year and five-year drawdown figures were not available for this article. Crypto trades with other risk assets when yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.30% on October 26, and the Federal Reserve decision on October 28 could move both.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that oil near USD 115.81 ties energy, inflation, yields, gold and crypto together, so five assets react to the same Iran and Fed headlines. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) is a direct oil play. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) holds energy producers. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) responds to yields. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) does too. Bitcoin (BTC) responds to risk appetite. The Fed decision on October 28, 2026 is the next test.