Key Highlights

  • Republicans hold a 218-214 House edge and a 53-47 Senate majority entering the November 3 vote.
  • A record USD 3.8 billion had been spent on aired political advertisements as of October 12.
  • Voters elect governors in 39 states and state legislators in nearly every state, alongside House and Senate seats.
  • A September poll put approval of Trump’s performance at an all-time low of 32 percent.

The Stakes

Early voting has been under way for weeks ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, when US voters elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country. Midterms, held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, do not involve the president.

Two statistics frame the year. As of October 12, a record USD 3.8 billion had been spent on aired political advertisements, with the top spending in battleground Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Elon Musk alone has spent about USD 366 million to support Republicans, campaign finance records show.

If turnout resembles the 2022 midterm, more than 100 million people vote, though midterms generally attract fewer voters than presidential races. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election.

Control of Congress

Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control.

In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need four additional seats to get control. Ten races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, decide the outcome.

This year’s elections also include governor races in 39 of the 50 states and voting in nearly every state for seats in state legislatures. Republicans currently control 55 percent of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8 percent.

Midterms and the Presidency

Midterm elections are generally dangerous territory for the party that holds the White House or Congress. In 2026, that means President Donald Trump and the Republicans controlling both chambers are in a perilous political position.

The elections let voters grade the president’s performance, and can prompt White House course corrections after low marks.

What the Polls Show

A September poll put approval of Trump’s performance at an all-time low of 32 percent. Domestic issues such as rising consumer prices influence many races and weigh on support for Republicans.

There is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans this year, based on early voting trends. There are also signs that Latino voters who moved toward Trump in 2024 are returning to Democrats, out of frustration over the economy and some of Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics.

A landslide for Democrats is far from assured. Republicans benefit from continued skepticism toward Democrats, a spending advantage on campaigns, and fears among moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wing candidates.

Midterm History

Recent history shows the shockwaves a midterm can produce. In the 2010 midterms, during Democratic President Barack Obama’s first term, Republicans won 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming economy and weak support for Obama’s health reform law. Democrats lost their majority in the House, while holding the Senate despite losing six seats. Obama described the result as a “shellacking.”

Democrats returned the favor in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net 40 House seats but lost a net two Senate seats.

The Speaker’s Gavel

If Democrats win the House, the next speaker, second in line for the presidency after the vice president, is Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the current House Democratic leader. Jeffries is in line to become the first Black American to hold the office. He has said Democrats plan to direct committees to investigate what he calls unprecedented levels of corruption in the Trump administration, and focus on making healthcare, groceries, housing and energy more affordable.

A Republican win keeps the speaker’s gavel in that party’s hands, with current Speaker Mike Johnson or whichever Republican prevails if he is challenged. Republican priorities center on additional tax cuts, large increases in defense spending and deeper social safety net reductions, building on Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Marquee Races

Among the most-watched House races are Republican Representative Mike Lawler’s bid for reelection in a New York district won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, and an open seat in a Nebraska swing district where farmers and truckers face sharply higher fuel prices because of the US war against Iran. Democrats also target two seats in Pennsylvania and one in New Jersey.

Questions hover over whether Trump tries to interfere in elections administered by the 50 states. Since 2020 he has repeatedly insisted there is widespread cheating, despite a lack of evidence. State election officials and Democrats in Congress have been preparing for possible legal challenges to any moves by his administration to intervene.