Key Highlights

● The Dow led October at plus 2.82%, while the Nasdaq Composite trailed at minus 2.52%.

● Nasdaq-100 futures were down 2.62% and S&P 500 futures down 1.13% around 8 a.m. ET.

● Small caps have overtaken the Nasdaq as 2026's best performer among the four indexes.

● Brent crude is up about 12% in October to a six-month high above $117.

Friday is the last trading day of October, and the month's final scorecard is still being settled. Going into the session, three of the four major US indexes were up for the month and one was down. Pre-market futures suggest that split could get wider by the close.

Where things stand

Based on closing levels for Sept. 30 and Oct. 29, here is the month-to-date math through Thursday:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Thursday at 52,342.56, up 2.82% from 50,906.05 at the end of September. The Russell 2000 finished at 2,859.22, up 2.23% from 2,796.86. The S&P 500 ended at 7,720.39, up 0.90% from 7,651.54. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,184.72, down 2.52% from 26,861.06.

Combining those numbers with year-to-date figures at the end of September, the Russell 2000 was up about 15.2% for 2026 through Thursday, the S&P 500 about 12.8%, the Nasdaq about 12.7% and the Dow about 8.9%. In other words, small caps have overtaken the Nasdaq as the year's best performer among the four, by that calculation.

Media reports described the S&P 500 on Friday as "up about 1% for October and over 12% year to date," consistent with those figures.

Now the futures. As of roughly 8 a.m. ET, market data quotes showed Dow futures up 9 points at 52,521, S&P 500 futures down 88 points, or 1.13%, Nasdaq-100 futures down 773 points, or 2.62%, and Russell 2000 futures down 0.58%. If those moves carry into the cash session, the S&P 500 would give back most or all of its October gain, while the Nasdaq's monthly loss would deepen. That is a projection from futures, not a result, and a lot can change in six and a half trading hours.

What drove the split

October's story has been a rotation away from the biggest AI spenders. A market commentary measure showed the S&P 500 excluding AI-linked stocks beating the full index by about 6.4 points this month. Through Oct. 27, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF RSP was up 4.57% for the month, versus 0.92% for SPY and a 2.50% loss for QQQ, according to market commentary.

The final week sharpened the divide. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell 12.6% on Thursday, its worst day since its 2004 listing, after record capex and a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow. On Friday, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was about 7% lower and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) about 25% lower before the open. Meanwhile, energy, financials, utilities and health care were set for solid monthly gains, according to media reports, with health care closing at a record Thursday.

Beyond stocks, the month's moves were just as striking. Brent Crude is up about 12% in October to a six-month high above $117 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Gold is down about 5% and silver about 17%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which topped 5.30% earlier this month for the first time since 2002, has fallen back to around 4.94% to 4.99%.

What to watch into the close

The 8:30 a.m. ET Employment Cost Index, expected at 0.8% for the third quarter, and the 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI, forecast at 54.6, are the last data points of the month. Fed speakers Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem are scheduled around midday. Month-end portfolio Rebalancing can also create unusual flows in the final hour.

Then the calendar gets crowded: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports Monday, the midterm elections are Tuesday, the Treasury's Refunding announcement is Wednesday, and the October jobs report is Nov. 6. For investors, October's scoreboard is a reminder that index-level calm has masked a sharp reshuffling underneath, with old-economy sectors and smaller companies doing the heavy lifting while the AI leaders stumble.