Key Highlights

  • Waste Management (NYSE:WM) reports third quarter 2026 results after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, against consensus earnings of USD 2.18 per share, with its call at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
  • In the second quarter, adjusted earnings were USD 2.02 per share on revenue of USD 6.684 billion, so the consensus implies a step up of about 8% from that level.
  • Full-year guidance in July: adjusted operating EBITDA of USD 8.15 billion to USD 8.25 billion, free cash flow of USD 3.75 billion to USD 3.85 billion and an adjusted margin of 31.0% to 31.2%.
  • Management succession is under way, with John Morris named as the next chief executive on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, so the call carries added interest.

Waste Management (NYSE:WM): the bar against a raised margin outlook

Waste Management (NYSE:WM), the largest collector of household and commercial waste in North America and an owner of landfills, reports after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. In its release of Tuesday, July 28, 2026, second quarter revenue rose 4.0% to USD 6.684 billion, diluted earnings were USD 1.95 per share against USD 1.80 a year earlier and adjusted earnings were USD 2.02 against USD 1.92. Operating EBITDA, meaning earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, was USD 2.030 billion, a margin of 30.4% reported and 30.9% adjusted. Free cash flow rose 34.5% to USD 1.10 billion. The consensus of USD 2.18 is likely stated on an adjusted basis. Results cannot be known in advance.

Why Guidance Mix and the Succession Shape the Reaction

In July management reaffirmed adjusted operating EBITDA of USD 8.15 billion to USD 8.25 billion and free cash flow of USD 3.75 billion to USD 3.85 billion, but modestly lowered revenue to USD 26.275 billion to USD 26.475 billion and raised the adjusted margin to 31.0% to 31.2%. That mix signals profit from price and cost control rather than volume. Waste Management (NYSE:WM) also announced that Jim Fish will retire and John Morris will become chief executive, after Tara Hemmer was named chief operating officer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, and it declared its dividend on Monday, August 24, 2026. Recycling prices and diesel costs remain the swing inputs for the quarter.

Risks and What to Watch

The bull case for Waste Management (NYSE:WM) is earnings above USD 2.18, an adjusted margin at or above the 30.9% of the second quarter and an EBITDA range held or lifted, which would show that pricing outpaces costs and could attract defensive buyers. The bear case is a margin below 30.9%, free cash flow tracking under the USD 3.75 billion floor, revenue pressed toward the lowered range or cautious commentary on volumes, which could weigh on the shares because the stock is valued on predictability. Because the report falls after the close, the first reaction comes on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, alongside the call and the Federal Reserve decision, which follows the rate rise of Wednesday, September 16, 2026 to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that Waste Management (NYSE:WM) needs adjusted earnings near or above USD 2.18, a margin inside the raised 31.0% to 31.2% full-year range and confirmation of its USD 8.15 billion to USD 8.25 billion EBITDA guidance. Free cash flow and the tone on the leadership transition matter more than a small earnings surprise. The next catalysts are the release after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, the call at 10:00 a.m. ET and the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Estimates can change, and this is not investment advice.