Key Highlights

  • California Resources (NYSE:CRC) traded at USD 54.54 on October 26, 2026, up 0.01%, with a market value of USD 4.84 billion, a trailing EPS of negative USD 1.36 and a dividend yield of 2.97% in published market data.
  • Second quarter production was 149 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, about 81% oil, with realized oil of USD 91.55 per barrel before derivative settlements and USD 76.43 after them.
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDAX guidance is USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.3 billion, built on Brent at USD 84.51 and NYMEX gas at USD 3.55, well below the USD 114.52 Brent level seen on October 26.
  • Berry merger synergies reached USD 103 million of annualized savings, more than the full target and six months ahead of schedule, while free cash flow was USD 114 million in the quarter.

Why Guidance Looks Conservative Against Spot Oil

Brent traded near USD 114.52 on October 26, 2026, about USD 30 above the USD 84.51 assumption behind California Resources (NYSE:CRC) guidance, simple arithmetic on two published numbers. The company has roughly 81% oil in a production base of 149 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, so unhedged barrels carry strong leverage to crude. Second quarter net income was USD 514 million, or USD 5.76 per share, but that included a non-cash derivative gain, and adjusted net income was USD 88 million, or USD 0.99. The trailing EPS of negative USD 1.36 in published market data reflects earlier derivative losses as crude climbed. Hedging also trims the benefit, since settlements cost about USD 15 per barrel in the quarter.

Berry, Power and Carbon Projects

The second quarter inventory build of about 137 thousand barrels, caused by temporary takeaway limits, cut adjusted EBITDAX and operating cash flow by about USD 25 million, and most of it was sold in July. Third quarter guidance is production of 151 to 154 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and adjusted EBITDAX of USD 285 million to USD 325 million. The company runs about five rigs in California and one in Utah, with 2026 capital of USD 520 million to USD 560 million. Carbon TerraVault I achieved its first injection and revenue, and the company announced the proposed Golden Valley Technology Hub with Beacon Data Centers at its Elk Hills field, though electricity revenue net of generation costs was a USD 4 million loss in the quarter.

Risks, Debt and Dates

California regulation is the main structural risk: the company says it holds sufficient permits for its 2026 program but lists government policy among its risk factors. Debt was USD 1.281 billion after the company issued USD 550 million of 7.250% notes due 2035 and redeemed 8.250% notes due 2029, taking a USD 28 million loss. Liquidity was USD 1.322 billion. A quarterly dividend of USD 0.405 per share was declared, and about USD 1.18 billion of shares have been repurchased since 2021. Third quarter results are expected in early November 2026, though the date had not been confirmed. Investors will watch realized prices, takeaway constraints and any increase to the Brent assumption.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that oil at USD 100 is a strong tailwind for California Resources (NYSE:CRC), because its USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.3 billion EBITDAX guidance assumes Brent at USD 84.51, about USD 30 below recent trading, and its output is about 81% oil. Hedges, California regulation and a possible Gulf settlement limit the upside. The next catalyst is third quarter results in early November.