Key Highlights

  • New orders for durable goods rose 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion in June, below forecasts of a 1.6 percent increase.
  • The gain followed a revised 4.0 percent decline in May.
  • Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched business spending proxy, rose 0.9 percent.
  • Shipments of durable goods increased 0.7 percent to $330.7 billion, marking the ninth increase in the last ten months.

A Modest Rebound That Falls Short of Expectations

New orders for US manufactured durable goods increased 0.3 percent month over month to $334.8 billion in June 2026, according to Census Bureau data, rebounding from a revised 4.0 percent slump in May but coming in much lower than forecasts of a 1.6 percent jump. The rebound was driven by increases in capital goods orders, up 1.1 percent, alongside gains in primary metals, computers and electronics, and electrical equipment and appliances.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose a stronger 0.6 percent, highlighting how weakness in that category weighed on the headline figure. Orders declined for transportation equipment, down 0.2 percent, driven mostly by a 0.6 percent drop in motor vehicles and parts, while fabricated metal products and machinery orders also declined modestly during the month.

Business Spending Proxy Shows Resilience Despite Headline Miss

Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.9 percent in June, following an upwardly revised 1.9 percent increase in May and coming in above forecasts of 0.8 percent. This measure's continued strength suggests underlying business investment intentions remain firmer than the volatile headline durable goods figure might otherwise suggest, given that the broader number can be skewed by large swings in categories like aircraft and defense equipment.

Computers and electronic products led the overall order gains, up 3.1 percent to $31.1 billion and marking the ninth increase in the last ten months, while shipments of durable goods increased 0.7 percent to $330.7 billion, also led by a 2.4 percent rise in computers and electronic products shipments. Unfilled orders rose 0.6 percent to $1,590.1 billion, extending a streak of increases in 23 of the last 24 months, with transportation equipment, particularly a $4.1 billion increase tied largely to aircraft backlogs, leading that gain. Total inventories of durable goods rose 0.3 percent to $602.0 billion, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase.

Balancing Headline Weakness Against Steady Underlying Investment Signals

The gap between the modest 0.3 percent headline order growth and the stronger underlying core capital goods measure suggests the durable goods report presents a mixed picture for the manufacturing sector. Should the strength in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft continue in coming months, it could signal that businesses remain willing to invest despite the broader volatility evident in categories like transportation and aircraft orders.

However, the sharp miss relative to consensus forecasts for the headline figure, alongside continued weakness in categories such as motor vehicles, fabricated metal products, and machinery, could point to pockets of softness within the manufacturing sector that warrant continued monitoring. The elevated and continually rising level of unfilled orders, now approaching 1.6 trillion dollars, also suggests that backlogs, rather than fresh new demand, continue to represent a significant share of manufacturers' future revenue visibility.

Conclusion

June's durable goods report shows a manufacturing sector navigating uneven demand trends, with a modest headline order rebound that fell well short of expectations even as the closely watched core capital goods measure posted a solid gain above forecasts. Whether the resilience in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft continues may offer a more reliable signal of underlying business investment intentions than the more volatile headline figure. The next advance report, covering July data, is scheduled for release on August 26.