Key Highlights

  • MAGA Inc. spent USD 300.5 million through October 14 and still held USD 164.3 million, three weeks before Election Day.
  • Trump-aligned groups are spending in districts Republicans won comfortably in 2024, including Ohio's 10th, Michigan's 4th and North Carolina's 11th.
  • Of the 21 House races rated Toss Up, 16 are held by Republicans and five by Democrats.
  • A poll released Wednesday put Trump's approval rating at 36 percent, with 59 percent of voters disapproving.

Money Moves Into Safer Seats

Trump-aligned super political action committees are spending millions in districts that Republicans won comfortably in 2024, including Ohio's 10th, Michigan's 4th and North Carolina's 11th. The spending shows the party defending a broader House map than it expected two years ago.

Campaign finance filings released Tuesday night show money flowing into districts that were barely competitive in 2024. President Donald Trump has made good on his claim of putting more than USD 300 million of his political war chest into the 2026 midterm elections.

The Filings

MAGA Inc., Trump's main super PAC, reported USD 300.5 million in disbursements through October 14, new Federal Election Commission filings show. A quarter of that cycle total, USD 75.5 million, was spent in the first two weeks of October. It still held USD 164.3 million in cash, and Trump said on Tuesday that his political operation is to spend more than USD 400 million by Election Day.

Much of the money is moving through two new Trump-aligned groups. MAGA Inc. sent USD 200 million to No Going Back PAC and USD 25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC. Between them, the two groups have reported more than USD 209 million in independent expenditures.

The spending follows months of Republican anxiety that Trump was holding on to his war chest. Party operatives had worried as recently as September that the cash was staying largely on the sidelines.

Where the Money Goes

Safety & Affordability has spent USD 3.76 million in Arizona's 1st District, USD 1.84 million in Maine's 2nd, USD 1.60 million in Wisconsin's 3rd, USD 1.48 million in North Carolina's 1st and USD 1.40 million in Ohio's 10th. It has also put more than USD 1 million each into Pennsylvania's 8th, Ohio's 9th and Michigan's 7th.

A nonpartisan political handicapper rates Wisconsin's 3rd, North Carolina's 1st, Pennsylvania's 8th, Ohio's 9th and Michigan's 7th among its 21 Toss Up races.

Less Familiar Terrain

Other spending shows Republicans being pushed onto less familiar ground. In Ohio's 10th District, Safety & Affordability has spent about USD 1.4 million defending Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who won by 18 points in 2024. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists the seat in a new tier of possible 2026 pickups, while the National Republican Congressional Committee only began spending there this month, an ad-tracking firm reported.

No Going Back has spent roughly USD 5 million each in Republican-held Michigan's 4th and North Carolina's 11th, and another USD 14.4 million combined in Democratic-held Florida's 14th and 25th.

Other Republican groups have begun to triage. The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Speaker Mike Johnson's super PAC, stopped advertising in Iowa's 1st, New Jersey's 7th, Michigan's 8th and Ohio's 1st districts. Trump-aligned groups have spent about USD 1.4 million across those four races.

Republicans still hold the advertising edge in 25 of the 42 House races rated Toss Up or Lean for either party. Of the 21 races rated Toss Up, 16 are held by Republicans and five by Democrats.

Senate Races and Voter Turnout

Trump's PACs have also spent heavily on the Senate. No Going Back has spent nearly USD 30 million in Michigan, USD 27.8 million in Ohio, USD 11.8 million in New Hampshire and USD 9.9 million in North Carolina. Those four races account for roughly USD 79 million.

A poll released Wednesday put Trump's approval rating at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. Voters disapproved of his handling of the cost of living by 69 percent to 29 percent, and of gas prices by 73 percent to 24 percent. Democrats led by 10 points when voters were asked about the House candidates actually running in their districts.

Trump's allies are also working on a turnout problem: persuading voters who backed him in presidential elections to vote when he is not on the ballot. MAGA Inc. reported a USD 16.2 million disbursement on October 8 labeled voting education, and has run more than 2,200 unique ads on Facebook and Instagram in more than 20 states urging Republicans to vote early or turn out.