Key Highlights

  • Silver rose 1.11% to USD 57.72 an ounce on Tuesday, adding USD 0.635 on the day.
  • The metal remains 12.52% lower over the past month and 18.54% higher over the past year.
  • Silver has fallen further than gold over the month, with the gold to silver ratio at about 71.
  • Rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28.

A Small Bounce After a Steep Fall

Silver rose 1.11% to USD 57.72 an ounce on Tuesday, adding USD 0.635. The gain came after a stretch in which the metal hovered near multi-week lows. It remains down 12.52% over the past month, a steeper fall than gold's 5.18% decline over the same period.

Over twelve months the picture looks better, and the gap with gold is wide. Silver is up 18.54%, while gold is down 0.16%. The bounce on Tuesday did little to change the monthly trend. A 12.52% monthly fall implies the metal traded near USD 66 a month ago.

Gold to Silver Ratio Tells the Relative Story

Gold at about USD 4,118 and silver at USD 57.72 put the ratio between the two at about 71 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. Silver tends to move by larger amounts than gold in both directions, and the past month shows it. Because silver also has industrial uses in electronics and renewable energy, swings in factory demand can influence its price more than they do gold's.

Market commentary attributes this year's gains to constrained supply, rising industrial demand and investor demand. A 12.52% monthly loss does not erase an 18.54% yearly gain, but it shows how quickly gains can reverse.

Fed Pricing Weighs on Precious Metals

Rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. CME FedWatch pricing shows a probability above 90% of a further increase on December 9.

Higher rates raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. The September increase and the repricing of the path ahead coincide with the month long slide in the metal.

Dollar and Yields Provide the Backdrop

The dollar index slipped 0.21% to 101.77 on Tuesday, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.123%. The index is up 1.33% over the past month, so the dollar's recent strength remains a headwind for dollar priced metals. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point hike in December. Minutes released October 7 showed most participants saw another hike as appropriate before the end of 2026.

Inflation and Housing Signals

September headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. The energy component links oil prices directly to the rate outlook.

Weak housing data arrived at the same time. Housing starts fell 5.2% to 1.22 million, below the forecast of 1.3 million. The mix of rising energy costs and weaker housing shapes the debate the Fed faces next week.