Key Highlights

  • Shares are trading 0.44% higher at $23.82 on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, against a 52-week range of $22.21 to $54.50.
  • Short interest was 28,569,957 shares, or 35.50% of float, for the September 30, 2026 settlement date.
  • Second-quarter revenue rose 42% to $364.7 million, with net income of $16.5 million.
  • Originations rose 50% to $4.23 billion across 558,014 loans.
  • Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of about $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million.

Upstart Share Move: Why Is the Stock Edging Higher Ahead of Its Earnings Date?

Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) shares are trading 0.44% higher at $23.82 on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, after closing at $23.00 on Monday, October 26, following a 3.28% decline. The stock sits just above its 52-week low of $22.21, and no company announcement accompanied today's move.

Upstart runs an artificial intelligence lending marketplace that connects more than 100 banks and credit unions with borrowers, and over 90% of loans are fully automated. Recent partnership news includes MIT Federal Credit Union's October 21 expansion into indirect auto lending. Market capitalization is about $2.24 billion on 97.31 million shares, with an enterprise value of $3.84 billion.

Short Interest: What Could 35.50% of Float Sold Short Mean for Upstart?

Short-interest data for the settlement date of September 30, 2026 showed 28,569,957 shares sold short, equal to 35.50% of float and about 6.23 days to cover. The position rose 3.3%, or 920,169 shares, from 27,649,788 on September 15.

A short position this large signals heavy bearish positioning and can deepen declines if sentiment sours. It can also magnify upward moves if short sellers rush to cover after a favorable report. Several research firms trimmed targets in mid-October, including Goldman Sachs to $28 from $39 and Citizens to $18 from $20, while the consensus rating from 16 firms is buy with an average target of $38.38, cited as data points only.

Second-Quarter Results: Did 50% Origination Growth Outweigh a Lower Conversion Rate?

In its August 4, 2026 release, Upstart reported second-quarter revenue of $364.7 million, up 42%, with fee revenue of $348.0 million, up 45%. Net income was $16.5 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, versus $5.6 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $76.9 million, a 21% margin.

Originations rose 50% to $4.23 billion, but the conversion rate eased to 19.7% from 21.0%. Contribution profit hit an all-time high of $193.1 million, although contribution margin slipped to 55% from 58%. Unsecured lending delivered a 62% contribution margin, while secured auto and home loans improved to a negative 35% from negative 176%.

The balance sheet showed $456.0 million of cash, $526.3 million of restricted cash, $1.06 billion of loans at fair value and $2.00 billion of borrowings. The company repurchased $100.1 million of stock in the first half and reaffirmed full-year revenue of about $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million. It also plans to stop reporting conversion rate beginning in the first quarter of 2027. The stock trades at 43.97 times trailing earnings and 7.56 times forward earnings.

What to Watch Next: What Will Upstart Report on November 3?

Upstart will release third-quarter 2026 results at about 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with a webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET. Originations, the conversion rate, which it will stop reporting after 2026, secured-loan profitability and any change to the full-year outlook are the key figures. The next short-interest update will show whether bearish positioning has shifted before the report.