Key Highlights

  • Spot gold traded near USD 3,906 an ounce on Monday, November 2, 2026, up about 0.8% from Friday's close of USD 3,875.84 in published market data, after a drop of about 3.5% on October 30.
  • December gold futures settled at USD 3,898.90 on Friday, down 3.3%, a one-year low, even as the 10-year Treasury Yield eased to about 4.93%.
  • Hot September Inflation of 3.6% and about 75% odds of a December Fed hike pushed gold below USD 4,000, because higher rates raise the Opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal.
  • SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is an exchange-traded trust that holds physical gold, and no price move for the fund is cited in this article because none was verified.

Why Gold Fell on Friday

Gold fell about 3.5% on October 30, 2026 to a one-year low, a move that surprised many investors because Treasury yields also fell, which usually helps gold. Published coverage pointed to forced selling: as technology stocks slid, traders facing margin calls sold liquid assets, including gold and silver. September PCE inflation of 3.6% year over year, the Fed's 10 to 2 hold on October 28 and futures pricing near 75% for a December hike also reduced the appeal of a metal that pays no interest, since investors can earn a rising yield on cash and bonds instead.

Monday's Rebound and Key Levels

On Monday, spot gold recovered to near USD 3,906 as Brent Crude fell more than 3% to below USD 110 on reports of Iran and Qatar talks, which eased inflation concern. Analyst levels quoted in published research put support near USD 3,869 and USD 3,828 and resistance near USD 3,920 and USD 3,952, with the 14-day relative strength index around 32 after dipping below 30, an oversold reading. Scenario levels cited were a bear case of USD 3,830 and a bull case of USD 4,025. These are technical views, not forecasts, and they can Fail quickly if the macro backdrop shifts. The Friday low was reported near USD 3,870.

Risks and the Week Ahead

The calendar is dense: the ISM Manufacturing report on Monday, midterm elections on Tuesday, ISM services on Wednesday, the Bank of England decision on Thursday and the October jobs report on Friday, November 6, with consensus near 68,000 jobs. A strong jobs figure could raise hike odds and pressure SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) and gold. Another Equity sell-off could trigger further margin selling, while an oil spike could revive inflation concern. Safe-haven flows from geopolitical headlines can still lift gold quickly, and Central Bank buying has been a source of support, though its recent pace was not verified. Stocks and gold fell together on Friday, showing how unstable correlations can be.

Where Things Stand

A bounce does not make a floor. Gold rebounded to about USD 3,906 after a 3.5% drop to a one-year low, but the drivers that caused the sell-off, inflation near 3.6%, hike odds near 75% and equity-linked margin selling, remain in place. Technical support near USD 3,869 and oversold readings help buyers, yet a strong jobs report could reverse the bounce. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) would reflect any such move, so the next test is November 6.