Key Highlights

● December WTI settled at $99.47, up $2.32, a five-month high.

● Brent rose $4.35 to $113.17, its highest since May 4.

● US crude inventories fell by more than 3 million barrels in the latest week.

● CSX shares jumped after earnings as record diesel prices shifted freight to rail.

West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, came close to $100 a barrel during trading on Thursday, October 22, before settling just below that mark. December WTI settled at $99.47, up $2.32, according to one data source, while another put the settlement at $99.06, up $1.91. Either way, it was a five-month high.

The global benchmark, Brent, rose $4.35 to $113.17, its highest since May 4.

Why $100 matters

The $100 level has no special economic meaning, but it carries psychological weight. It is a figure that drivers, businesses and policymakers notice, and it tends to grab headlines. A sustained move above it could shape expectations for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices heading into winter.

Brent, which reflects global seaborne supply, has traded well above WTI. The gap reflects the different supply pictures: the US is a major producer, while Brent is more exposed to disruptions in the Middle East.

What pushed prices higher

Geopolitics drove the move. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia hit Dammam airport and an Aramco oil field, and one report said four people were killed. The State Department ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia.

A media report also said the US and Israeli militaries have plans to renew strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms. Brent has climbed by more than half since the Iran war began in late February.

On the supply side, US crude inventories fell by more than 3 million barrels in the latest weekly government report. A report said Middle East exports now exceed pre-war levels via routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a partial offset.

Who feels it

Fuel costs are showing up in earnings. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) cut its 2026 earnings guidance because of fuel, citing $821 million in extra fuel costs and expecting fourth-quarter fuel at $4.55 a gallon. United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) cut the high end of its guidance, citing energy costs.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) executives said "Oil at $113 means more is coming in Q3 and Q4," pointing to more cost pressure ahead.

Railroads see a silver lining. CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) benefited as record diesel prices of $6.53 a gallon in September pushed freight from trucks to rail, and its shares jumped after earnings.

Producers did not get much lift. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) ended essentially flat, and Valero (NYSE:VLO) slipped despite a record quarterly profit.

Markets shrug off inflation, for now

Rising oil usually raises inflation worries. Yet Treasuries rallied on Thursday as investors fled technology stocks, and the 10-year yield fell back below a closely watched threshold for the first time since September 22. "If oil is about to spark an inflation wave, the bond market hasn't heard about it," one commentator said.

Stocks were dominated by an artificial-intelligence selloff. The Nasdaq Composite fell 694 points to 26,008.86, and the S&P 500 dropped 93.74 points to 7,663.43, its worst day since July.

The Push for a Breakout Above 100

Whether WTI breaks through $100 will depend largely on events in Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the November 3 midterms now a focal point. Weekly US inventory data will show whether supply keeps tightening. Friday's S&P Global PMIs will capture business price pressures, and the Federal Reserve announces its decision on October 28. September PCE inflation, due October 29, will reveal how much higher energy costs have already reached consumers.