Key Highlights

  • Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) reports third quarter 2026 results on November 3, 2026, with Options pricing a move of about 13.1% against a ten-year average peak move near 31.7%.
  • Second quarter originations rose 50% to USD 4.2 billion across 558,014 loans, yet the conversion rate slipped to 19.7% from 21.0% a year earlier.
  • Revenue was USD 364.7 million, up 42%, Net Income USD 16.5 million, or USD 0.16 a share, and adjusted EBITDA USD 76.9 million at a 21% margin.
  • Full-year 2026 guidance is Revenue of about USD 1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about USD 294 million, a 21% margin, reiterated on August 4, 2026 with the second quarter report.

Growth With Slippage

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) reported second quarter revenue of USD 364.7 million, up 42%, with fee revenue of USD 348.0 million, up 45%. Originations of USD 4.2 billion were up 50%, but conversion, the share of applicants who become borrowers, fell to 19.7%. Contribution profit hit a record USD 193 million, though contribution Margin eased to 55% from 58%. The company reiterated full-year revenue of about USD 1.4 billion, of which about USD 1.3 billion is fees, and adjusted EBITDA of about USD 294 million. Management also said fixed operating expenses should rise at a low single-digit sequential rate in the third and fourth quarters.

Funding And Balance Sheet

Upstart connects borrowers with lenders, so funding capacity matters as much as demand. It held about USD 1.06 billion of loans on its own Balance Sheet at June 30, 5.9% of unpaid principal outstanding, the lowest level in nearly two years. It closed a USD 569 million securitization and signed three institutional deals offering up to USD 5 billion of committed capacity. Secured auto and home products still lose money, with a combined contribution margin of negative 35%, an improvement from negative 96% in the first quarter, so the drag on total profit is shrinking but not gone.

History, Timing And Risks

Options data as of October 30 imply about 13.1%. Actual moves have often been larger or smaller than priced: close-to-close, shares fell 15.0% in February, 7.9% in May and 0.4% in August, though they traded up 14.4% at the peak that day. Calendar data list a before-the-open release, whereas the August report came after the close, so timing should be confirmed with the company notice. Risks include Credit performance, funding costs, a further fall in conversion and macro sensitivity of the model, since lending Demand and investor appetite for loans both depend on credit conditions.

Where Things Stand

A 13.1% implied move is far below Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) history of large swings, which suggests options traders expect less Volatility than the stock has delivered, though the implied figure is a market estimate and not a forecast. Growth is strong, with originations up 50%, but conversion, secured losses and funding remain the questions. Evidence is mixed, and the November 3 release is the next catalyst. No third quarter company guidance was found in the retrieved release.