Key Highlights

  • During Monday's October 26, 2026 session, XRP was around USD 1.31; the nearer technical challenge sits between USD 1.25 and USD 1.26.
  • Reaching USD 1 from USD 1.31 would require an approximately 23.7% fall on simple arithmetic, while one estimate projects 22% downside if major holders keep selling.
  • The cited support area is only around 4% to 5% below Monday's level and therefore arrives well before the widely watched USD 1 threshold.
  • More than USD 810 million in leveraged positions was liquidated within 24 hours after bitcoin moved below USD 80,000 on Saturday, October 24, 2026.

Why Is the Nearer XRP Support Zone the Immediate Test?

XRPC (NASDAQ:XRPC), the Canary XRP ETF, owns XRP directly and therefore follows the token after fees. XRP stood near USD 1.31 on Monday, October 26, 2026 following a weak weekend. Bitcoin had fallen beneath USD 80,000 on Saturday, October 24 and reached about USD 79,146, its lowest point in more than a month. Liquidations exceeded USD 810 million in 24 hours.

Monday levels were close to USD 80,200 for bitcoin and USD 2,320 for ether as the anticipated October advance failed for a second consecutive year. Market commentary placed the first XRP support around USD 1.25 to USD 1.26, only roughly 4% to 5% below USD 1.31. Another estimate warned of 22% downside if large holders continue selling.

How Can a Support Break Accelerate Redemptions and Forced Sales?

Support describes an area where demand previously absorbed supply. Once it fails, stop orders may activate and exchanges can close leveraged long positions funded with borrowed money. The weekend's more than USD 810 million of liquidations illustrates how quickly that mechanical pressure can compound an ordinary price decline.

Applying the cited 22% decline to USD 1.31 yields roughly USD 1.02 on straightforward arithmetic, leaving the result close to the psychologically important USD 1 mark. Redemptions create another route because a spot product may have to dispose of tokens when investors exit. Across October 22, a Thursday, and October 23, a Friday, bitcoin products recorded withdrawals of approximately USD 773 million, showing that route was operating.

Which Holder, Rate and Bitcoin Risks Could Deepen Weakness?

The projected 22% loss assumes that major XRP owners continue disposing of tokens. Leverage also responds to monetary policy. On Wednesday, September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve moved its target range upward, setting the lower boundary at 3.75% and the upper one at 4.00%. Later futures measures assigned approximately 71% to 80% probability to another increase during December, which would make financed positions costlier to maintain.

Bitcoin contagion is the third variable because the largest cryptocurrency is testing support around USD 80,000. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) both report Thursday, October 29, potentially changing sentiment. Technical support and market forecasts are estimates, not promises.

What to Watch Next: Will October 28 to November 3 Change the Setup?

The first checkpoint is whether XRP retains USD 1.25 to USD 1.26. The Federal Reserve decision follows Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and results from the two major crypto-linked companies arrive October 29. Midterm elections take place Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

At USD 1.31, XRP remained approximately 23.7% above USD 1, so reaching that threshold would require a substantially larger move than the immediate support test. Leverage and fund withdrawals can nevertheless accelerate declines after a break. Future prices cannot be known in advance. This analysis does not provide investment advice.

Two stages therefore matter. Buyers may first defend the nearby zone before attention shifts to the round-number threshold. If that area holds, the larger bearish calculation never has to occur. If it fails, leveraged closures and redemptions may compress the distance more rapidly. That sequence is why the percentage gap alone cannot describe timing, and why the cited technical levels should be treated as analytical reference points rather than assured floors.