Key Highlights

  • Itron (NASDAQ:ITRI) reports third-quarter results before the open on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with consensus adjusted earnings of USD 1.56 per share, inside its own guided range of USD 1.50 to USD 1.60.
  • Third-quarter revenue guidance is USD 590 million to USD 600 million, following second-quarter revenue of USD 563 million, which was 7% lower than a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of USD 1.59 per share.
  • Full-year guidance calls for revenue of USD 2.37 billion to USD 2.41 billion and adjusted earnings of USD 6.30 to USD 6.50 per share, after the outlook for earnings was raised in July.
  • Adjusted gross margin reached 41.4% in the second quarter, up 460 basis points, and backlog stood at USD 4.4 billion, so margin and order conversion are the main tests.

The Setup and Last Quarter's Guidance

Itron (NASDAQ:ITRI) supplies smart meters, grid software and related services to electricity, gas and water utilities, and it reports before the open on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Consensus adjusted earnings are USD 1.56 per share, which sits at the middle of the guided range of USD 1.50 to USD 1.60, so the bar is demanding but not stretched. In the quarter reported on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, revenue of USD 563 million fell 7% year on year, yet adjusted earnings of USD 1.59 per share beat expectations and the shares rose about 20% in published market data. Bookings were USD 550 million. Revenue guidance for the third quarter is USD 590 million to USD 600 million. Results cannot be known in advance.

Why Margin and Backlog Conversion Matter

Itron (NASDAQ:ITRI) books orders from utilities that often take years to deploy, so backlog, meaning contracted work not yet delivered, converts into revenue as projects ship. Backlog was USD 4.4 billion in June, compared with USD 4.5 billion a year earlier, and the second quarter showed that profit can rise while revenue falls. Adjusted gross margin improved by 460 basis points to 41.4%. Management also lifted its full-year earnings range to USD 6.30 to USD 6.50 per share without giving a margin target. Third-quarter revenue growth from the second quarter is needed to support that range, so the timing of shipments is the practical swing factor.

Risks and What to Watch

The bull case for Itron (NASDAQ:ITRI) is revenue at or above USD 600 million, adjusted earnings above USD 1.60, gross margin holding near 41% and bookings that rebuild backlog. After a rally of about 20% in July, such a result would probably be rewarded if full-year guidance moves higher again. The bear case is revenue near the low end of USD 590 million, a margin that gives back part of the gain or a trimmed full-year range, which could lead to a sharp pullback because expectations have risen. Utility budget timing, tariff costs and project delays are the underlying risks. Investors should watch bookings, backlog, margin commentary, guidance and the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that Itron (NASDAQ:ITRI) can meet a USD 1.56 consensus if it delivers revenue within USD 590 million to USD 600 million, but the reaction will rest on gross margin, backlog and the full-year range. The shares carry a higher bar after the July rally, so even an in-line quarter needs firm guidance. The next catalysts are the release on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 and the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Consensus figures and guidance are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not investment advice.