Key Highlights

  • MP Materials (NYSE:MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) were set side by side in published analysis on Saturday, October 17, 2026, after an October selloff hit US rare earth stocks.
  • MP Materials holds a 10-year price floor of USD 110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium oxide under its 2025 agreement with the Pentagon, which also made the department a major shareholder.
  • USA Rare Earth is an earlier-stage company building a magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma and developing the Round Top deposit in Texas, so it carries more execution risk.
  • The size of the October selloff could not be confirmed from reporting dated October 16 to 20, so this article does not restate a percentage decline for either stock.

Two Rare Earth Stocks After a Selloff

MP Materials (NYSE:MP) runs the Mountain Pass mine and processing site in California, the largest rare earth operation in the US, and is expanding into magnet production. Published analysis on Saturday, October 17, 2026 compared it with USA Rare Earth after both stocks fell in an October selloff across the group. The comparison rests on different stages of development. MP Materials already mines and separates rare earths and has long-standing magnet supply arrangements, including with General Motors (NYSE:GM). USA Rare Earth is still building its first magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma and developing its Round Top deposit. China's move on Friday, October 16, 2026 to require registration of AI technology exports kept trade policy in focus.

How the Price Floor Changes the Risk Profile

Neodymium-praseodymium oxide, known as NdPr, is the main input for the permanent magnets used in electric motors, wind turbines and defence systems. China dominates its supply and pricing, which has long made Western producers' revenue swing with Chinese export policy. MP Materials' 2025 agreement with the Pentagon sets a 10-year floor of USD 110 per kilogram, so when market prices fall below that level the government makes up the gap. That reduces downside to MP Materials' (NYSE:MP) earnings, although the shares still trade on sentiment about scarcity and trade talks. USA Rare Earth lacks a comparable floor, so its value depends more heavily on financing, construction and future offtake contracts.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk for MP Materials (NYSE:MP) is policy: easing trade tension between Washington and Beijing could cut the scarcity premium that investors pay for Western supply. The second is execution, as magnet output must scale on schedule to justify the valuation. USA Rare Earth faces larger funding and construction risk because it has no producing mine yet. Higher rates also weigh on long-dated projects, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.11% on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Investors should watch any US and China trade statements, the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that the price floor cushions MP Materials' (NYSE:MP) earnings but does not stop its shares from falling when the scarcity premium fades. USA Rare Earth carries more upside and more risk because its business is not yet producing. The next catalysts are trade headlines, the Fed decision on October 28 and the midterms on November 3, 2026. Contract terms can be renegotiated and project timelines can slip, and this is not investment advice.