Key Highlights

  • US Gulf Coast jet fuel was $4.632 per gallon on October 20, according to the EIA.
  • Delta cut full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50 on October 9, citing a $6 billion higher fuel bill.
  • United guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.50 to $1.50 against a $1.76 average estimate, assuming fuel near $4.80 per gallon.
  • American guided a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of $0.50 to $1.10 per share, with fuel near $4.70 adding about $2.8 billion.
  • Airline fares rose 22.4% in the 12 months to September, according to official consumer price data.

Airline Stocks: How Much Is $4.63 Jet Fuel Costing Carriers?

US Gulf Coast jet fuel was $4.632 per gallon on October 20, according to the EIA, and reported data showed $4.34 on October 8 against $2.19 a year earlier. Brent futures traded at $111.70 on Thursday, October 22, after attacks on Gulf tankers. The weekly average for jet fuel was $4.500 in the week ended October 16.

The cost shows up directly in guidance. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) said on October 9 that its adjusted fuel expense rose 62% to $4.1 billion in the third quarter and that full-year fuel costs would be $6 billion higher, cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50.

Fourth-Quarter Guidance: Which Carriers Have Been Hit Hardest?

United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) said on Tuesday, October 20 that it expects fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.50 to $1.50, below the $1.76 average estimate, with fuel near $4.80 per gallon, about 45 cents above analyst expectations. Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) forecast an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of $2.00 to $2.50 per share and a fuel bill $1.8 billion above plan.

American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) reported on October 22 a third-quarter adjusted loss of $0.28 per share, narrower than the $0.36 loss expected, on record revenue of $16.3 billion. It guided to a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of $0.50 to $1.10 with fuel near $4.70 per gallon, and a full-year loss of $1.00 to $1.60.

Delta had guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.65 with fuel near $4.25. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is reassessing capacity and may cut less profitable flights.

Fares and Premium Demand: Can Airlines Pass the Cost to Passengers?

Pricing is doing part of the work. The consumer price index showed airline fares up 1.2% in September and 22.4% over twelve months. Delta's premium and loyalty revenue each rose 18% in the third quarter, and its adjusted revenue rose 16% to a record $17.6 billion on flat capacity.

American's premium revenue rose 22.9% and managed corporate revenue 27.6%, yet its pre-tax margin was negative 2.0%. Delta said it plans to earn more per seat rather than add many more seats, and American said network growth would slow in 2027 because of fuel.

What to Watch Next: Will Fuel Costs Force Capacity Cuts?

The next signals are jet fuel prices, which follow Gulf tanker traffic, and any capacity trims announced for 2027. Reports from carriers still to give fourth-quarter outlooks, including Southwest, will show whether fare increases keep pace with fuel at these levels.