Key Highlights

● Barclays raised its Strategy target to $175 from $160.

● The firm kept an Overweight rating.

● A verified closing figure for the stock was not available.

● Morgan Stanley raised Coinbase to $258 and Robinhood to $160.

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stayed in focus on Friday, October 9, after Barclays (NYSE:BCS) analyst Nik Cremo raised his price target on the stock to $175 from $160 and kept an Overweight rating. The shares rose in early trade, but accounts of where they finished varied: one later market data snapshot showed the stock lower, and a verified closing figure was not available.

An Overweight rating signals that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the market or its sector, and the higher target lifts Barclays' estimate of where the shares could trade.

Why bitcoin matters so much

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. While it still runs an enterprise analytics software business, its value is dominated by its huge bitcoin holdings, which it has built up by raising money through share and debt sales. As a result, its stock tends to move in the same direction as bitcoin, often by more.

Bitcoin bounced on Friday. It traded around $82,420 late in the session, up roughly $684, after recovering from a Thursday low near $80,300. Still, bitcoin was down over the week from about $84,497, and futures failed to hold above $82,500, according to market data. Ether traded around $2,480 to $2,500.

Flows into crypto funds have softened. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw about $244 million of outflows on Thursday and roughly $729 million over two days, putting them on pace for their first weekly outflow in four weeks, according to market market data.

Analysts weigh in across crypto

Strategy was one of several crypto-linked companies to draw analyst attention. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Michael Cyprys raised his target on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) to $258 from $250 with an Equal Weight rating and said concerns about broker cash balances and AI could be overdone. Morgan Stanley also lifted its Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) target to $160 from $150 at Overweight.

Not all the calls were positive. Morgan Stanley downgraded crypto exchange Gemini Space Station to Underweight, with a $4.75 target, saying a better crypto market "may not be enough to resolve Gemini's challenges with scale and distribution."

Elsewhere, Armada Acquisition Corp. II, the vehicle for the Evernorth XRP-treasury combination, fell sharply, giving back part of a steep run-up ahead of the completed deal.

The broader market

Stocks climbed. The S&P 500 rose 46.18 points to 7,811.54, finishing about 7 points below its record close. The Nasdaq Composite gained 172.83 points to 27,366.17, and the Dow added 423.31 points to 51,654.95. Gold futures rose $59.30 to $4,216.30 an ounce, and silver climbed $1.62 to $61.05.

Higher rates have been a challenge for speculative assets. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed close to its 24-year high, while the Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023. Minutes from that meeting pointed to another increase by year end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday, "For at least the near term, policy will be focused on the inflation side of our mandate."

Bitcoin's Direction and Fund Flows Will Drive Strategy Next

Strategy's shares will continue to track bitcoin, so the direction of the cryptocurrency and fund flows will be key. The September consumer price index on Wednesday, October 14, could move both rate expectations and risk appetite. Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday. Bank earnings run from October 13 to 16, and the Fed meets October 27 and 28. On Monday, October 12, stocks are open while bond trading pauses for Columbus Day.